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Crypto Basics

Bitcoin Price Prediction for July 2025: Key Trends, Insights, and What Investors Can Expect

Get a detailed Bitcoin price prediction for 2025 using Token Metrics AI signals and on-chain data. Learn how institutional inflows, low supply, and macro trends could push BTC to $230K by 2026.
Token Metrics Team
8 min
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As of July 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a major breakout, surging past $119,000 after breaching the critical $110,000 resistance level. This surge, driven by institutional capital inflows, supply constraints, and favorable macroeconomic trends, has reignited optimism in the broader crypto market.

But how high can Bitcoin go in 2025—and beyond? Is this rally sustainable? What are the risks? In this highly informative and SEO-optimized blog post, we’ll provide a detailed Bitcoin price prediction for 2025, using real-time data from the Token Metrics AI crypto trading and research platform, along with key macro, on-chain, and policy-level insights.

🚀 The Bullish Breakout: Bitcoin Turns Upward in June 2025

On June 28, 2025, the Token Metrics AI signal for Bitcoin turned bullish, signaling a strong shift in momentum. Since then, Bitcoin has:

  • Surged past $118,000
  • Broken the psychological and technical resistance at $110,000
  • Shown strong price action supported by both on-chain and institutional metrics

This wasn’t just a technical rally—it’s been fundamentally driven by several powerful tailwinds.

📊 Institutional Adoption: The Driving Force Behind Bitcoin’s Surge

1. Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Billions in Inflows

Major financial institutions—BlackRock, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab—have led the charge in Bitcoin ETF adoption. As of Q3 2025:

  • Total net inflows to U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs have surpassed $25 billion
  • These products are now used in 401(k)s, pension funds, and private wealth portfolios

Institutional buyers are not flipping BTC like retail investors. Instead, they’re accumulating and holding, tightening supply and driving long-term demand.

2. Declining Exchange Reserves

Another bullish on-chain indicator: BTC reserves on exchanges have dropped from 3.25 million to just 2.55 million BTC—a level not seen since 2017. This suggests:

  • More Bitcoin is being moved to cold wallets
  • Less BTC is available for sale
  • Market sentiment is shifting from “sell” to “HODL”

When supply tightens while demand rises, prices move up—a simple but powerful formula playing out in real time.

📈 Policy Tailwinds: Pro-Crypto Regulations in the U.S.

The current U.S. regulatory landscape is the most Bitcoin-friendly in history.

🔹 Bitcoin Reserve Proposal

There are growing discussions in U.S. policy circles around holding Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, similar to gold. This has further validated BTC as:

  • A legitimate sovereign-grade asset
  • A hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty

🔹 Clarity on Custody and Taxes

Clear guidelines on:

  • Crypto tax treatment for institutions
  • Custodianship rules for ETFs and banks
  • Greenlight for banks to hold digital assets

…have dramatically increased institutional confidence in Bitcoin.

💰 Macroeconomic Trends Supporting BTC’s Growth

1. Weakening U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen due to:

  • Rising national debt
  • Slowing economic growth
  • High interest rates suppressing consumer demand

This has led investors to rotate into store-of-value assets like Bitcoin.

2. Rising Geopolitical Risk

Tensions in the Middle East (e.g., Israel-Iran) and ongoing trade disputes have fueled demand for assets that are:

  • Borderless
  • Non-sovereign
  • Resistant to censorship

Bitcoin fits all three criteria, increasing its role as a digital safe haven in times of global instability.

⚠️ Risks to Monitor in 2025

While the Bitcoin outlook is bullish, several risks could slow momentum:

❌ 1. Energy Usage Concerns

Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism remains energy-intensive. Critics argue this could:

  • Attract stricter environmental regulations
  • Reduce adoption in ESG-conscious portfolios

❌ 2. Regional Regulatory Uncertainty

Not all jurisdictions are as pro-Bitcoin as the U.S. In 2025, some countries (especially in Asia and Europe) continue to:

  • Restrict Bitcoin trading
  • Propose heavy taxation
  • Limit institutional adoption

❌ 3. Price Corrections

With BTC up significantly since the start of 2025, short-term pullbacks are likely. Corrections of 15–25% are common in bull cycles—investors should be prepared with clear entry and exit strategies.

📉 Bear Case Scenario

If institutional inflows slow down or new regulation spooks the market:

  • Bitcoin could retrace to $90,000–$100,000
  • This would represent a healthy correction, not a full trend reversal
  • Long-term fundamentals still remain intact

📊 Token Metrics AI Forecast: Bitcoin Price Prediction for 2025–2026

Using on-chain data, macro indicators, and real-time signals from the Token Metrics platform, the current forecast is:

This outlook is supported by Token Metrics AI signals, which have maintained a bullish position since late June 2025.

🧠 How Token Metrics Helps You Navigate Bitcoin and Beyond

While Bitcoin is a macro asset, altcoins often outperform it in bull markets. Token Metrics helps investors identify these opportunities with:

🚀 Moonshots

  • Daily low-cap altcoin picks with 10x–100x potential
  • Live ROI, market cap, and trader grade metrics
  • AI-driven early discovery engine

📈 Real-Time Buy/Sell Signals

  • Use Trader Grade for short-term trades
  • Use Investor Grade for long-term conviction picks

💹 Crypto Indices

  • Thematic portfolios (AI, RWA, Layer 1s, etc.)
  • Easy exposure to sectors likely to boom after BTC leads the rally

🔔 Take Action Today

If you’re looking to ride the current Bitcoin bull cycle and find the next big altcoins to complement your portfolio, start using Token Metrics today:

✅ Track real-time signals
✅ Discover early Moonshots
✅ Analyze risk with AI
✅ Make informed crypto investment decisions

👉 Sign up now at TokenMetrics.com

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About Token Metrics
Token Metrics: AI-powered crypto research and ratings platform. We help investors make smarter decisions with unbiased Token Metrics Ratings, on-chain analytics, and editor-curated “Top 10” guides. Our platform distills thousands of data points into clear scores, trends, and alerts you can act on.
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Token Metrics Team
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Crypto Basics

What is KYC in Regard to Crypto? [Answered]

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KYC, or "know your customer," is a term used to describe the identity and background checks that financial institutions are required to conduct on their customers. These checks are important for risk mitigation and are part of the Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regulations that these institutions must follow. In the cryptocurrency space, KYC regulations are becoming increasingly important as more and more people use digital assets for financial transactions. By conducting KYC checks, cryptocurrency exchanges and other financial institutions can help prevent money laundering and other illegal activities.

History of Know Your Customer

The United States government has implemented a number of measures to help financial service institutions detect and prevent financial crimes. These measures were established by the USA Patriot Act of 2001 and were finalized in 2002, making KYC (know your customer) checks mandatory for all US financial institutions. In 2016, the Department of Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) expanded these regulations to include the FinTech sector, which resulted in virtual currency exchange platforms being declared official money services businesses under the Bank Secrecy Act. This means that these platforms are subject to all AML (anti-money laundering) and KYC requirements.

KYC in Practice

While it is up to regulated entities (banks, crypto exchanges, and other financial institutions) to implement the specifics of KYC and AML regulations, the KYC practices and programs generally include three essential components:

  1. Customer Identification Program (CIP): Through CIP, firms verify the customer's identity through independent data. This includes the client's name, address, and date of birth. Some firms even request a form of identification (passport or ID), social security number, or a video and selfie from their customers to verify their identity.
  2. Customer Due Diligence (CDD): CDD is the process of screening the background of a prospective client. Thorough background checks are essential to understand the risks that a new customer could bring to the firm. This process can expose fraudulent activity that potential new clients may have taken part in. If necessary, firms will perform enhanced due diligence (EDD) to get a deeper look into the new customer's past in order to mitigate risk further.
  3. Ongoing Monitoring and Risk Management: Even after Customer Identification Programs and Due Diligence take place, firms will continue to monitor and manage the potential risks of new customers. They will continue to oversee their customer's transactions and flag anything unusual. This ensures ongoing risk mitigation which is essential for the trust between financial firms and their clients.

Why is KYC/AML Important?

KYC regulations aim to discern that customers are who they say they are. This helps to prevent money laundering, terrorist financing, and fraud within the financial market.

Know Your Customer and other Anti-Money Laundering regulations benefit both financial institutions and their clients. These rules improve security and mitigate risk by keeping bad actors off the books. This acts as an assurance for customers and leads to a more trustworthy company-client relationship.

KYC and Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency industry is still relatively new, and its decentralized nature can make it difficult to implement KYC (know your customer) measures. Crypto regulations are also still evolving as regulators seek to prevent financial crimes using cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. As mentioned, crypto exchanges are considered official money services businesses and are therefore subject to KYC rules. These rules require exchanges to conduct identity and background checks on their customers, which may include requiring a photo ID. Many exchanges only allow transactions to occur once KYC is completed, especially for large sums of money.

However, some exchanges may try to avoid these rules by establishing their companies in countries with less stringent regulations. Exchanges that do not follow KYC and AML laws may not be available to use in countries that have these laws. This is why implementing KYC practices can actually increase an exchange's global reach by making it available in countries that have these laws, such as the US.

As the FinTech industry continues to grow and develop, it is important to regulate and mitigate risks to prevent illegal or suspicious behavior. AML laws are essential for ensuring fairness and equity in the emerging financial technology industry. Over time, regulations will continue to evolve to keep pace with the rapidly changing market.

Crypto Basics

When Does the Crypto Market Close? [Answered]

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There are a few reasons why people might want to know the closing time of the market. First, knowing the closing time can help traders plan their buying and selling activities around the times when the market is most active. This can help them take advantage of price movements and increase their chances of making profitable trades. Second, knowing the closing time can also help investors manage their risk by allowing them to set limits on their trading activities. For example, an investor may want to avoid holding positions overnight in case of significant price movements while the market is closed.

If you want to trade cryptocurrencies, you may be wondering when the crypto market closes. We're here to provide the answer to that question and more.

When Does the Crypto Market Close?

The cryptocurrency market, unlike the stock exchange, does not close. Crypto markets are open 24/7, so you can buy, sell, and swap cryptocurrencies anytime you want. The 24/7 nature of the cryptocurrency market is a significant advantage for traders and investors. Because the market never closes, traders can respond to news and events as they happen, rather than having to wait for the market to open. This allows for more flexibility and can potentially lead to better trading decisions.

Additionally, the continuous trading activity in the crypto market can lead to increased liquidity and tighter spreads, which can make it easier for traders to buy and sell cryptocurrencies at the prices they want. This can be especially beneficial for investors who want to take advantage of short-term price movements or who need to execute large trades quickly.

Furthermore, the fact that the crypto market is always open can be useful for traders in different time zones. Because the market never closes, traders in any part of the world can access it and make trades at any time. This is particularly useful for traders who may not be able to trade during normal market hours due to work or other commitments.

What Time of Day is Crypto-Popular?

Cryptocurrencies are most commonly traded between 8:00 am and 4:00 pm in local time. As a rule of thumb, the market tends to see most of its activity take place on weekdays during the times in which the US stock exchange is open.

Strategies for Day Trading Crypto

The day trading method involves trading one or more shares during a given day to earn profits. It is buying and selling an asset (in this case, a cryptocurrency) within the same day or multiple times over the day. This allows the trader to take advantage of small price moves, which can be very lucrative. To thrive in crypto day trading, keeping your eye on the charts, analytics, and community announcements is very important. Token Metrics provides many of these valuable insights, thanks to our AI and Machine Learning models.

The strategy of day trading contrasts the popular buy and hold, aka HODL strategy, but it does have certain benefits for traders. It is essential to have a well-planned strategy for day trading to succeed in maximizing profits.

Range trading is a common strategy for day trading cryptocurrencies. This involves monitoring the market for drastic changes in price and volume, and buying and selling accordingly. For example, if you notice that the volume of a particular cryptocurrency has increased significantly, you may want to buy it when it reaches an oversold level and sell it when it reaches an overbought level. By doing this, you can take advantage of short-term price movements and potentially profit from them. It's important to remember, however, that the small market caps of many cryptocurrencies make them susceptible to manipulation by large buyers, so it's essential to carefully monitor the market and make informed trading decisions.

Another popular strategy is employing bots to automate your crypto investments. Certain platforms allow traders to customize trading bots to buy low and sell high. Platforms like these use bots to read the markets and let traders break from constantly tracking the blockchain themselves. Similarly, scalping allows traders to benefit from small price movements. Many scalpers use bots to accumulate smaller gains by buying and selling a crypto asset within seconds. Scalping tends to necessitate a larger bankroll to benefit to a greater extent.

The final way in which crypto traders can take advantage of day trading is through arbitrage. Arbitrage involves buying a cryptocurrency on one exchange market and selling it on another where a price discrepancy exists. The fact that the crypto market is unregulated allows for price discrepancies to take place between trading exchange markets. This means a specific cryptocurrency may sell for more on one market than another. This is known as trading the spread. A spread is the difference in a coin's buy and sell price on different platforms.

Traders must consider trading fees when using any day trading tactic, as trading fees may wipe out gains from multiple transactions.

Key Takeaways

The cryptocurrency market is non-stop. Crypto traders are not limited to trading hours, like stock or bond traders. There are a multitude of ways in which crypto traders can take advantage of the ever-changing market by implementing day-trading strategies. It is important to understand the volatility and risks that come with trading cryptocurrencies. It is best to take a measured approach when trading and investing in crypto, and do your own research to understand what tactics would provide significant profits and help achieve your investing goals.

Research

Introducing Token Metrics Research

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We are proud to announce Token Metrics Research, a dedicated platform to host all our research for our customers and crypto enthusiasts out there.

Token Metrics is an AI-driven crypto research platform. We bring to you the smartness of machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) by blending the expertise of our investment team, data scientists, and developers to deliver comprehensive institutional-grade research. To help navigate this new asset class we have a team of analysts dedicatedly to researching the crypto space and producing research reports.

Token Metrics Research

For the past years, we have delivered premium research for our customers through our email newsletters, Token Metrics TV and our Youtube channel. We received feedback to have an archive and dedicated platform for all research media, so we created – Token Metrics Research.

  • Free Access Articles: Access to crypto educational articles, product announcements and expert reviews on digital assets.
  • Premium Access Articles: Premium access includes our institutional-grade research covering Market Update, Hidden Gems from all crypto sectors including DeFi, NFTs, Gaming and Metaverse, Web3 infrastructure projects, project deep-dive analysis, project code reviews, and more.
  • Token Metrics TV: A network featuring free daily videos by our team of crypto investment specialists. We also host our Premium and VIP customers weekly webinars only accessible to our Token Metrics Premium and VIP plan customers.

*Token Metrics TV will be accessible through research.tokenmetrics.com*

How To Access Token Metrics Research?

Non-Customers can read all articles labeled ‘Free’ including Crypto Basics, Token Metrics Tutorials, Crypto Moon Awards, and News and Thought-Leadership articles. Non-customers can also read any two premium reports per month for Free. All Shows on Token Metrics TV are FREE with the exception of premium customer webinars.

Basic Plan subscribers can read all Free articles, Token Metrics Navigator (published weekly) and any two Premium reports per month for Free. Basic Plan subscribers can also add all premium reports to their subscription for an additional $20/month. All Shows on Token Metrics TV are FREE including our daily market update with the exception of the premium webinars.

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Premium and VIP Plan subscribers have access to all free and premium reports. All Shows on Token Metrics TV are FREE including our daily market update. The premium webinar recordings are also hosted on our research blog.

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