Research

Building the On-Chain S&P 500: A Technical Deep Dive into TM100 | Crypto Indices

Explore the technical design, security, and future roadmap of the TM100 on-chain crypto index, enhancing systematic management and DeFi integration.
Token Metrics Team
10
MIN

Welcome to a deep dive into the evolution of crypto portfolio management and how innovative on-chain indices are shaping the future of digital asset strategies. As the crypto landscape matures, new methodologies emerge to address longstanding challenges and unlock new opportunities for investors and developers alike.

The Evolution of Crypto Portfolio Management

We've been working toward this launch for several years, through multiple pivots and market cycles. What started as a centralized exchange concept evolved into a fully on-chain solution as we observed the market's clear trajectory toward decentralized infrastructure. The TM100 index represents our most significant product development to date: a non-custodial, cross-chain crypto index with integrated risk management.

The crypto market has matured considerably since 2017. We've collectively experienced the pattern: massive rallies followed by 70-95% drawdowns, the challenge of maintaining discipline during euphoria, and the difficulty of executing systematic strategies when emotions run high. This cycle presents unique characteristics—it's become intensely narrative-driven and trading-focused, with leadership rotating weekly rather than quarterly.

The Core Problem

Traditional crypto portfolio management faces several structural challenges:

  • Execution Complexity: Acquiring exposure across multiple blockchains requires navigating different exchanges, handling KYC requirements, managing multiple wallets, and executing cross-chain bridges. Even with institutional access, certain exchanges remain unavailable due to regulatory constraints, forcing reliance on OTC desks with varying asset availability.
  • Narrative Velocity: This cycle moves faster than previous ones. What works in Q1 may be obsolete by Q2. Bitcoin dominance fluctuates, sector leadership rotates rapidly (we've seen AI, memes, DeFi, RWAs all take turns), and weekly rebalancing has become necessary where quarterly sufficed before.
  • Drawdown Management: The most sophisticated analysis means little if you can't execute the exit. Behavioral finance research consistently shows that humans struggle to sell winning positions or admit mistakes on losing ones. Automation removes the emotional component entirely.
  • Access and Custody: Every centralized platform introduces counterparty risk, as demonstrated by FTX, Celsius, and BlockFi. The industry learned "not your keys, not your crypto" the hard way.

Technical Architecture

Multi-Chain Infrastructure

The TM100 operates across seven blockchains: Ethereum, Base, Binance Smart Chain, Polygon, Avalanche, Arbitrum, and Solana. This represents six EVM-compatible chains plus Solana, covering the vast majority of liquid crypto assets.

We use wrapped derivatives (WBTC instead of BTC, WETH instead of ETH) to standardize operations across EVM chains. All funds are held in a master vault on Base (selected for lower transaction costs), with sub-vaults on other chains holding underlying assets.

Selection Methodology

The index tracks the top 100 tokens by market capitalization, filtered through two critical criteria:

  • Liquidity Floor: Minimum 300k TVL in AMM pools. This ensures executable trades without excessive slippage.
  • Circulating Supply: Minimum 25% circulation. This filters out low-float VC projects prone to unlock dumps.

Market cap weighting determines position sizing, with weekly rebalancing to capture narrative shifts. Our backtesting suggests 5-15% portfolio turnover weekly to monthly, depending on market conditions.

The Risk Management Layer

This is where the product differentiates from passive indices. We've integrated our market indicator to create a risk-off mechanism:

  • Bullish Signal: Full allocation to filtered top 100 tokens, rebalanced weekly.
  • Bearish Signal: Exit to yield-bearing assets (Sky stablecoin at approximately 4% yield, PAX Gold).

The system doesn't try to catch falling knives. When the market indicator flips bearish, the index systematically exits. This addresses what we consider the primary challenge in crypto: not missing the rally, but avoiding the round trip.

Smart Contract Standards

We're using ERC-4626, Ethereum's tokenized vault standard. This provides:

  • Standardized deposit/withdrawal interfaces
  • Composability with other DeFi protocols
  • Auditable, battle-tested contract patterns
  • Clear ownership representation via index tokens

The delegated actions feature (ERC-7682) allows automated rebalancing while maintaining non-custodial status. Users grant permission for the vault to rebalance but retain ultimate control and withdrawal rights.

Security Infrastructure

Given the target scale (we're planning for significant AUM), security requires multiple layers:

  • Wallet Layer (Privy): Handles authentication and wallet abstraction. Supports social logins, email, and traditional wallet connections. Used by major platforms including Hyperliquid and Polymarket.
  • Key Management (Turnkey): Secure private key infrastructure. Keys never exist in plaintext on application servers.
  • Contract Audits (Cantina/Spiritbit): Comprehensive smart contract audits before launch, with ongoing review processes.
  • Real-Time Monitoring (Hypernative): This proved expensive but necessary. Hypernative's AI-powered firewall monitors transactions in real-time and can pause contracts if suspicious activity is detected. Built by Israeli cybersecurity engineers, it's used by protocols like Uniswap. Given potential AUM, we couldn't rely solely on pre-deployment audits.

DeFi Composability: The Real Innovation

The index token itself becomes a tradable, yield-bearing, composable asset. This creates possibilities beyond traditional index funds:

Primary Markets

  • Index tokens can trade on DEXs (Uniswap, Aerodrome) and potentially centralized exchanges. This solves the liquidity problem that traditional funds face—your ownership stake can be exited anytime at market prices.
  • Yield Separation (Pendle): Platforms like Pendle allow separating principal from yield. Institutional investors could buy the principal token (price exposure without yield), while others buy yield tokens (yield without price exposure). This requires approximately $2 million+ TVL for listing.
  • Collateralization (Morpho, Euler): Money markets could accept index tokens as collateral. Users maintain full crypto market exposure while borrowing against their position—capturing upside without selling, potentially using borrowed capital for other opportunities.
  • Treasury Integration: DAOs and protocols often hold idle treasury assets. Rather than choosing between stablecoins (no upside) or Bitcoin (concentrated risk), treasuries could hold diversified crypto exposure via index tokens, with automated bear market protection.

API Access

We're integrating TM100 into our developer API. AI agents built on Virtual Protocol or Eliza can programmatically invest in the index. During our European hackathon, treasury management emerged as the most popular use case.

This composability creates network effects. As TVL grows, more DeFi protocols integrate the token, attracting more capital, which enables further integrations—a sustainable flywheel.

Performance Analysis

Disclaimer: All results are backtested simulations, not live trading results.

Testing from 2017 to present:

  • Annualized Return: 104% (no fees), 85% (with fees)
  • Volatility: 45%
  • Sharpe Ratio: 1.58
  • Sortino Ratio: 2.0
  • Maximum Drawdown: 41%

The maximum drawdown metric deserves emphasis. Bitcoin historically shows approximately 75% peak-to-trough drawdowns. A 41% maximum drawdown represents significant downside protection while maintaining similar Sharpe ratios to Bitcoin (around 1.5 for BTC this cycle).

Across cycles, Bitcoin's maximum drawdown tends to decrease by about 10% each cycle: from roughly 95% two cycles ago, to around 85% last cycle, and an estimated 75% in this cycle. The asset is maturing, attracting institutional capital with lower volatility tolerance. Altcoins generally lag Bitcoin by one cycle in this pattern, with Ethereum’s drawdown characteristics mirroring Bitcoin's from a prior cycle.

Fee Structure and Economics

Management Fee: 1% annually, accruing on-chain (likely daily). Performance Fee: 15% quarterly, with a high watermark. This means fees are only charged on new profits. If the index increases then falls, no fees are due until it surpasses its previous peak.

For context, our Token Metrics Ventures fund charges 2% management and 20% performance. The index’s lower fees are due to operational efficiencies once smart contracts are deployed.

TMAI Integration

Our native token reduces fees through staking scores:

  • Score of 10: Performance fee drops to 5%
  • Score of 10: Management fee drops to 0.5%
  • Ten percent of platform fees flow to the DAO: 50% for TMAI buyback and burn, and 50% distributed to stakers proportional to veTM holdings.
  • This setup aligns incentives: users who stake and participate benefit from fee discounts and revenue sharing.

    Liquidity and Execution

    Phase 1 (Current): LI.FI integration for smart order routing. Handles trades up to around $25,000 efficiently with minimal slippage.

    Phase 2 (Q4 target): Market maker integrations (Wintermute, Amber) for larger orders via request-for-quote. Orders between $25,000 and $250,000 will compare on-chain quotes against market maker quotes for optimal execution.

    Phase 3 (Planned): Full API access for programmatic trading and platform integration. Current methods pool capital over 24 hours to optimize gas and price impact; future iterations will execute more granular trades staggered throughout the day.

    Market Context and Timing

    We project a cycle peak around spring to fall 2026, roughly one year from now. Our key targets include:

    • Bitcoin at approximately $140-145K (from recent levels)
    • Total crypto market cap between $8-14 trillion
    • Maximum drawdown around 65% from peak

    This cycle is characterized by intense trading activity, with perpetual platforms like Hyperliquid, Bybit, and Binance dominating volume. Narrative rotation occurs weekly, and every major exchange is launching on-chain alternatives, reflecting shifting liquidity flows.

    Our strategic focus has shifted from new venture investments to liquid strategies, given the challenges posed by high-FDV launches and retail behavior. Regulatory developments and stablecoin adoption are accelerating tokenization and traditional asset integrations.

    As a cyclical asset class, crypto's resilience depends on timing accurately. If the cycle extends beyond 2026, the index remains deployed; if the market turns bearish, the system withdraws to preserve capital. This adaptive approach aims to leverage both uptrends and downturns.

    Implementation Details

    The early access process involves:

    1. Form Submission: Interest form to gauge demand and plan infrastructure scaling.
    2. Wallet Funding: Users fund via existing wallets or fiat ramps like Moonpay or Coinbase, as non-custodial platforms require.
    3. Delegated Actions: Permissions granted for rebalancing actions.
    4. Token Receipt: Receive index tokens representing ownership.

    The platform provides:

    • Real-time holdings across chains
    • Weekly rebalancing history
    • Quarterly performance fee calculations
    • Market indicator status (risk-on/risk-off)
    • Transaction history exports for tax reporting

    Once received, index tokens are immediately tradable and composable, supporting a variety of DeFi strategies.

    Beyond TM100: Future Considerations

    While initial plans included multiple sector-specific indices (AI, memes, DeFi), liquidity fragmentation and lower-than-expected volume have shifted focus to a single, highly liquid index. Benefits of this approach include:

    • Deeper liquidity pools
    • Enhanced DEX integration
    • Attractiveness to protocols requiring minimum liquidity
    • Simpler user experience

    Future concepts include:

    • Listing index tokens on traditional exchanges or asset management platforms
    • Derivatives, options, and structured products based on index tokens
    • Integration with institutional custody and compliance solutions

    Why This Matters

    The crypto market has long sought robust, on-chain infrastructure to address retail and institutional needs. Challenges include concentrated bets, custody risks, and high fees. Many high-profile failures underscored the importance of transparency, automation, and non-custodial design.

    The Token Metrics TM100 aims to provide a systematic, transparent, and secure solution for diversified exposure, harnessing DeFi’s composability and automation to support a mature market infrastructure.

    Technical Roadmap

    Current (Early Access):

    • Core index deployment on Base
    • LI.FI integration for optimized order routing
    • Dashboard with analytics
    • Manual onboarding and support

    Q4 2024:

    • Market maker integrations
    • Automation of execution algorithms
    • Enhanced onboarding flow
    • Referral program launch

    Q1 2025:

    • Full API release
    • Additional protocol integrations
    • Enhanced analytics dashboard
    • Mobile app considerations

    Beyond 2025:

    • Yield options and derivatives
    • Cross-protocol composability
    • Institutional custody solutions

    Conclusion

    Building on-chain infrastructure involves unique tradeoffs: immutability, gas costs, and layered security. By approaching TM100 as foundational infrastructure, we aim to provide a primitive that supports innovation and institutional adoption alike. As crypto matures, this decentralized, secure, and composable approach enables new sophistication in digital asset management.

    The code is entering final audits. Early access onboarding begins soon. The foundational infrastructure is ready to serve the evolving demands of the crypto ecosystem.

    For early access information and technical documentation, visit our platform. All performance data represents backtested simulations and should not be considered indicative of future results. Cryptocurrency investments carry substantial risk including potential total loss of capital.

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Token Metrics Team
Token Metrics Team

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Research

Top Crypto Prediction Markets: The Complete 2025 Guide to Trading the Future

Token Metrics Team
9
MIN

The prediction revolution is transforming crypto investing in 2025. From AI-powered price prediction platforms to blockchain-based event markets, today's tools help investors forecast everything from token prices to election outcomes with unprecedented accuracy. With billions in trading volume and cutting-edge AI analytics, these platforms are reshaping how we predict, trade, and profit from future events. Whether you're forecasting the next 100x altcoin or betting on real-world outcomes, this comprehensive guide explores the top prediction tools dominating 2025.

Understanding Crypto Prediction Tools vs. Prediction Markets

Before diving in, it's crucial to distinguish between two types of prediction platforms:

  • Crypto Price Prediction Platforms (like Token Metrics) use AI and data analytics to forecast cryptocurrency price movements, identify promising tokens, and generate trading signals.
  • Event Prediction Markets (like Polymarket and Kalshi) are blockchain-powered platforms where users trade on real-world event outcomes—elections, sports, economic indicators, and yes, even crypto prices.

Both serve valuable but different purposes. Let's explore the top tools in each category.

The #1 Crypto Price Prediction Platform

Token Metrics - AI-Powered Crypto Intelligence Leader

Token Metrics stands as the premier AI-driven crypto research and investment platform, scanning over 6,000 tokens daily to provide data-backed predictions and actionable insights. With a user base of 110,000+ crypto traders and $8.5 million raised from 3,000+ investors, Token Metrics has established itself as the industry's most comprehensive prediction tool.

What Makes Token Metrics the Top Price Prediction Tool:

  • AI-Driven Analytics Engine: Token Metrics' AI and machine learning algorithms identify potential trends and predict future price movements by analyzing fundamental reports, code quality, sentiment analysis, moving averages, and support/resistance levels. The platform processes massive datasets 24/7 to spot opportunities before they go mainstream.
  • Comprehensive Scoring System: Every token receives both a Trader Grade (for short-term momentum) and Investor Grade (for long-term fundamentals) based on technical analysis, on-chain data, fundamental metrics, sentiment and social data, and exchange data.
  • Moonshot Discovery: The Moonshots feature uses AI to highlight daily tokens with 10x–100x potential before they hit major exchanges, giving investors early access to high-upside opportunities.
  • Real-Time Signals & Alerts: Get instant bullish and bearish alerts for major tokens, with custom notifications via email, Telegram, or Slack. Never miss a sudden market move or grade change.
  • Multi-Strategy Support: Whether you're HODLing long-term, swing trading, narrative investing, or hunting moonshots, Token Metrics provides tailored tools and indices for every strategy.
  • Deep Token Analytics: Access detailed insights including historical performance, wallet holder analysis, exchange listings, code quality assessments, and market sentiment tracking.

Why Token Metrics Ranks #1:

Unlike basic charting tools or single-metric analyzers, Token Metrics combines time series data, media news, regulator activities, coin events like forks, and traded volumes across exchanges to optimize forecasting results. The platform's proven track record and comprehensive approach make it indispensable for serious crypto investors in 2025.

Best For:

Investors and traders seeking AI-powered crypto price predictions, portfolio optimization, and early altcoin discovery.

Top Crypto Event Prediction Markets

  1. Polymarket - The Largest Decentralized Prediction Market

  2. Kalshi - The CFTC-Regulated Powerhouse

  3. Drift BET - Solana's Speed Champion

  4. Augur - The Pioneering Protocol

  5. Gnosis - The Infrastructure Powerhouse

  6. Emerging Platforms

Polymarket - The Largest Decentralized Prediction Market

Polymarket dominates the event prediction market space with unmatched liquidity and diverse betting opportunities.

  • Over $18.4 billion in trading volume, establishing market leadership
  • Built on Polygon for low fees and fast transactions
  • Trades in USDC stablecoin for price stability
  • Approximately 40% of sales volume from sports betting, 40% from crypto movement predictions
  • Open interest recently rose to around $170 million
  • No trading fees on transactions

What Sets It Apart: Polymarket proved its forecasting superiority when it accurately predicted election outcomes that traditional polls missed. The platform's user-friendly interface makes blockchain prediction markets accessible to mainstream audiences.

Kalshi - The CFTC-Regulated Powerhouse

Kalshi has surged from 3.3% market share last year to 66% by September 2025, overtaking Polymarket as the trading volume leader.

  • First CFTC-regulated prediction market in the United States
  • Monthly trading volume hit approximately $1.3 billion in September 2025
  • Accepts crypto deposits (USDC, Bitcoin, Solana, Worldcoin) via ZeroHash
  • All markets settled in U.S. dollars
  • Fees up to 5% of profit, capped at $0.85 per contract
  • Recent Developments: Kalshi hired John Wang as Head of Crypto in August 2025 to drive blockchain integration, with plans to be on "every major crypto app and exchange within 12 months." The platform secured a massive $185 million Series C funding round and partnered with Robinhood for sports market expansion.

Drift BET - Solana's Speed Champion

For traders demanding instant settlement and minimal fees, Drift BET represents the cutting edge of prediction markets on Solana.

  • Native Solana integration for near-instant finality
  • Multi-collateral support
  • Extremely low transaction costs
  • Growing ecosystem momentum

Why It Matters: By leveraging Solana's near-instant transaction finality, Drift BET solves many scalability issues faced by Ethereum-based prediction markets, with low transaction fees making smaller bets feasible for wider audiences.

Augur - The Pioneering Protocol

Launched in 2018, Augur was the first decentralized prediction market, pioneering blockchain-based forecasting and innovative methods for settlement secured by the REP token.

  • Fully decentralized platform
  • REP token for market creation, rewards, and disputes
  • Augur Turbo version on Polygon for improved efficiency
  • Binary, categorical, and scalar market support

Legacy Impact: Augur v1 settled around $20 million in bets—impressive for 2018-19. While the DAO has dissolved, Augur's technological innovations now permeate the DeFi sphere.

Gnosis - The Infrastructure Powerhouse

With a market cap of $463 million, Gnosis is the biggest prediction market project by market capitalization.

  • Conditional Token Framework for tokenizing outcomes
  • GNO token for governance and staking
  • Gnosis Chain Layer 2 solution
  • Powers platforms like Omen and Azuro

Ecosystem Approach: Founded in 2015, Gnosis evolved into a multifaceted ecosystem encompassing decentralized trading, wallet services, and infrastructure tools beyond mere prediction markets.

Emerging Platforms

  • Robinhood Prediction Markets: Facilitated over 4 billion event contracts, including 2 billion in Q3 2025 alone. Seamlessly integrated into the Robinhood app, with a $0.01 commission + $0.01 exchange fee structure.
  • Myriad: Built on Abstract with promising points program, focusing on user rewards and engagement.
  • Crypto.com Prediction Trading: CFTC-regulated through Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA). Integrated with existing crypto exchange infrastructure.

How These Platforms Work Together

Smart investors often use Token Metrics for identifying which cryptocurrencies to invest in, then leverage prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi to hedge positions or speculate on specific price targets and events.

Example Strategy:

  1. Use Token Metrics to identify a token with strong Trader Grade and bullish AI signals
  2. Build a position in that token through AI trading for crypto or indices of your choice
  3. Use Token Metrics to bet on specific price milestones or related events
  4. Monitor Token Metrics alerts for exit signals

This combines the best of AI-driven price prediction with market-based event forecasting.

Why Prediction Platforms Are Exploding in 2025

Market Growth Trajectory: The prediction market sector is projected to reach $95.5 billion by 2035, with underlying derivatives integrating with DeFi protocols.

Key Growth Drivers:

  • AI & Machine Learning Advancement: Platforms like Token Metrics leverage increasingly sophisticated AI to process millions of data points, delivering predictions that outperform human analysts.
  • Regulatory Clarity: The 2024 U.S. election betting legalization and crypto-friendly policies under the Trump administration have opened floodgates for mainstream adoption.
  • Proven Accuracy: Prediction markets demonstrated superior forecasting during recent elections, while AI platforms like Token Metrics consistently identify moonshot tokens before mainstream discovery.
  • Institutional Interest: Kalshi attracted $1.4 billion in institutional capital in Q2 2025, signaling Wall Street's growing confidence in prediction infrastructure.
  • Sports Betting Expansion: Sports betting now drives significant volume, expanding prediction markets beyond politics and finance into entertainment.

Real-World Applications

For Crypto Investors:

  • Use Token Metrics to identify high-potential tokens before they pump
  • Access AI-generated buy/sell signals for portfolio management
  • Discover narrative-driven investment opportunities early

For Event Traders:

  • Hedge crypto positions using prediction markets
  • Speculate on regulatory outcomes, exchange listings, or network upgrades
  • Trade sports and political events for diversified income

For Analysts & Institutions:

  • Aggregate market sentiment data for research
  • Access real-time forecasting for economic indicators
  • Build custom trading strategies using API integrations

Risks and Considerations

For Price Prediction Platforms:

  • No prediction tool is 100% accurate; past performance doesn't guarantee future results
  • AI models perform best with sufficient historical data
  • Market manipulation and black swan events can invalidate predictions

For Prediction Markets:

  • Regulatory uncertainty remains in many jurisdictions
  • Liquidity challenges can create volatility
  • Oracle failures could compromise settlement integrity
  • Tax implications require careful record-keeping

The Future: AI + Blockchain Convergence

What's Coming: Token Metrics Evolution—Expect deeper AI agent integration, automated portfolio management, and enhanced moonshot discovery as machine learning models become more sophisticated.

Prediction Market Expansion: Kalshi aims to integrate with every major crypto app within 12 months, while tokenization of positions and margin trading will create new financial primitives.

Cross-Platform Integration: Future platforms will likely combine Token Metrics-style AI prediction with Polymarket-style event markets in unified interfaces.

DeFi Integration: The prediction market derivatives layer is set to integrate with DeFi protocols to create more complex financial products.

Getting Started: Platform Recommendations

For Price Prediction & Portfolio Management:

Token Metrics - Unmatched AI analytics, moonshot discovery, and comprehensive scoring

For U.S. Residents (Event Betting):

  • → Kalshi - Regulatory compliance, crypto deposits, diverse contracts
  • → Robinhood - Simplest onboarding through existing app

For Maximum Liquidity (Event Betting):

  • → Polymarket - Largest markets, best pricing, widest selection

For Speed & Low Fees:

  • → Drift BET - Solana-powered efficiency

For Developers:

  • → Gnosis - Infrastructure tools and frameworks

For Maximum Decentralization:

  • → Augur - Censorship-resistant, community-governed

Conclusion: Predicting the Future Is Now Data-Driven

The era of blind speculation is over. Between AI-powered platforms like Token Metrics analyzing thousands of data points per second and blockchain-based prediction markets aggregating collective wisdom, today's investors have unprecedented tools for forecasting the future. Token Metrics leads the charge in crypto price prediction with its comprehensive AI-driven approach, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominate event-based forecasting. Together, they represent a new paradigm where data, algorithms, and collective intelligence converge to illuminate tomorrow's opportunities.

Whether you're hunting the next 100x altcoin or betting on real-world events, 2025's prediction platforms put the power of foresight in your hands. The question isn't whether to use these tools—it's how quickly you can integrate them into your strategy.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investing involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Price predictions and ratings are provided for informational purposes and may not reflect actual future performance. Always conduct thorough research and consult qualified professionals before making financial decisions.

Research

What Are Indices? Your Complete Guide to Index Investing (2025)

Token Metrics Team
7
MIN

If you've heard phrases like "the S&P 500 is up today" or "crypto indices are gaining popularity," you've encountered indices in action. But what are indices, exactly, and why do millions of investors rely on them? This guide breaks down everything you need to know about indices, from traditional stock market benchmarks to modern crypto applications.

What Are Indices?

An index (plural: indices or indexes) is a measurement tool that tracks the performance of a group of assets as a single metric. Think of it as a portfolio formula that selects specific investments, assigns them weights, and updates on a regular schedule to represent a market, sector, or strategy.

Indices serve as benchmarks that answer questions like:

  • How is the overall stock market performing?
  • Are tech companies outpacing energy stocks?
  • What's the average return in the cryptocurrency market?

Important distinction: An index itself is just a number—like a thermometer reading. To actually invest, you need an index fund or index product that holds the underlying assets to replicate that index's performance.

How Do Indices Work?

Every index follows a systematic approach built on three core components:

  1. Selection Criteria

    Indices use clear rules to determine which assets qualify for inclusion. Common criteria include:

    • Market capitalization (company or asset size)
    • Liquidity (trading volume requirements)
    • Sector classification (technology, finance, healthcare)
    • Geographic location (US companies, emerging markets)
    • Quality metrics (profitability, credit rating)
  2. Weighting Methodology

    Once assets are selected, the index assigns importance to each one:

    • Market-cap weighted: Larger companies or assets have more influence. The S&P 500 uses this method, where Apple's performance matters more than a smaller company's.
    • Price-weighted: Higher-priced stocks carry more weight. The Dow Jones Industrial Average follows this approach.
    • Equal-weighted: Every asset gets the same allocation, giving smaller holdings more influence than market-cap weighting would.
  3. Rebalancing Schedule

    Indices update periodically to maintain accuracy:

    • Quarterly rebalancing (every 3 months) is common for stock indices
    • Monthly updates provide more current exposure
    • Weekly rebalancing responds quickly to market changes (popular in crypto)
    • Annual reviews keep costs low for long-term strategies

    During rebalancing, indices remove assets that no longer qualify, add new ones that now meet criteria, and adjust weightings to reflect current market conditions.

Types of Indices

Stock Market Indices

The most established category tracks equity performance:

  • S&P 500: America's 500 largest publicly traded companies
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: 30 major US corporations
  • Nasdaq Composite: Technology-heavy index with over 3,000 listings
  • Russell 2000: Small-cap company benchmark
  • MSCI World: Global developed market exposure

Bond Indices

Track fixed-income securities:

  • Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
  • ICE BofA US High Yield Index

Commodity Indices

Monitor raw materials and resources:

  • Bloomberg Commodity Index (energy, metals, agriculture)
  • S&P GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index)

Cryptocurrency Indices

The newest category tracks digital asset performance:

  • Top 10, Top 50, or Top 100 crypto indices tracking by market cap
  • Sector-specific indices (DeFi, Layer-1 blockchains, metaverse tokens)
  • Regime-switching indices that move between crypto and stablecoins based on market conditions

Why Indices Matter for Investors

Automatic Diversification

Instead of researching and buying dozens of individual stocks or cryptocurrencies, one index investment gives you exposure to an entire market. If you buy an S&P 500 index fund, you instantly own pieces of 500 companies—from Apple and Microsoft to Coca-Cola and JPMorgan Chase.

This diversification dramatically reduces single-asset risk. If one company fails, it represents only a small fraction of your total investment.

Lower Costs

Traditional financial advisors typically charge 1-2% annually to actively pick investments. Index funds charge just 0.03-0.20% because they simply follow preset rules rather than paying expensive analysts and portfolio managers.

Over decades, this cost difference compounds significantly. A 1% fee might seem small, but it can reduce your retirement savings by 25% or more over 30 years.

Consistent Market Returns

Research consistently shows that 80-90% of professional fund managers fail to beat simple index funds over 10-15 year periods. By investing in indices, you guarantee yourself market-average returns—which historically beat most active strategies after fees.

Time Savings

Index investing eliminates the need to:

  • Research hundreds of individual companies or assets
  • Monitor financial news constantly
  • Execute dozens of buy and sell decisions
  • Rebalance your portfolio manually
  • Track individual tax lots across multiple positions

Emotional Discipline

Markets test investors' emotions. Fear drives selling at bottoms; greed drives buying at tops. Index investing removes these emotional triggers—the formula decides what to own based on rules, not feelings.

The Rise of Crypto Indices

Cryptocurrency markets face unique challenges that make indices particularly valuable:

  • Extreme volatility: Individual coins can swing 50% in days or weeks. Holding 50-100 tokens through an index smooths these wild fluctuations.
  • Rapid narrative rotation: Crypto trends shift fast. DeFi dominated 2020, NFTs exploded in 2021, Layer-2 scaling drove 2022-2023. Indices let you own emerging narratives without constantly chasing them.
  • Execution complexity: Buying 100 individual cryptocurrencies means managing multiple exchange accounts, dozens of wallet transactions, high gas fees, and constant rebalancing work. A crypto index product handles all this with one purchase.
  • Individual coin risk: LUNA collapsed from $80 to pennies in days. FTX's token (FTT) went from $25 to nearly zero when the exchange failed. Diversified indices protect you when individual projects implode.

Modern Innovation: Regime-Switching Indices

Traditional indices stay fully invested through bull and bear markets alike. If the S&P 500 drops 30%, your index fund drops 30%. Regime-switching crypto indices add adaptive risk management:

  • During bull markets: Hold a diversified basket of crypto assets (like the top 100 by market cap) to capture broad upside.
  • During bear markets: Move entirely to stablecoins to preserve capital and wait for bullish re-entry signals.
  • Weekly rebalancing: Update holdings frequently to stay current with fast-moving crypto markets.

This approach aims to provide "heads you win, tails you don't lose as much"—participating when conditions warrant while stepping aside when risk turns south.

How to Start Index Investing

For Traditional Markets

Choose your focus: Total stock market, S&P 500, international, or bonds

Select a provider: Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, or iShares offer excellent low-cost options

Open a brokerage account: Most platforms have no minimums and free trading

Buy and hold: Invest regularly and leave it alone for years

For Crypto Markets

Identify your strategy: Passive broad exposure or adaptive regime-switching

Research index products: Look for transparent holdings, clear fee structures, and published methodologies

Review the details: Check rebalancing frequency, custody model, and supported funding options

Start small: Test the platform and process before committing large amounts

Monitor periodically: Track performance but avoid overtrading

Example: Token Metrics Global 100 Index

Token Metrics offers a regime-switching crypto index that holds the top 100 cryptocurrencies during bullish market signals and moves fully to stablecoins when conditions turn bearish. With weekly rebalancing, transparent holdings displayed in treemaps and tables, and a complete transaction log, it exemplifies the modern approach to crypto index investing.

The platform features embedded self-custodial wallets, one-click purchasing (typically completed in 90 seconds), and clear fee disclosure before confirmation—lowering the operational barriers that often prevent investors from accessing diversified crypto strategies.

The Bottom Line

Indices are measurement tools that track groups of assets, and index funds make those measurements investable. Whether you're building a retirement portfolio with stock indices or exploring crypto indices with adaptive risk management, the core benefits remain consistent: diversification, lower costs, emotional discipline, and simplified execution.

For most investors, index-based strategies deliver better risk-adjusted returns than attempting to pick individual winners. As Warren Buffett famously recommended, "Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund."

That advice applies whether you're investing in stocks, bonds, or the emerging world of cryptocurrency indices.

Ready to explore crypto indices? Visit the Token Metrics Indices hub to see regime-switching strategies in action, review transparent holdings, and join waitlists for upcoming index products.

Research

What Are Indices in Trading? A Complete Guide for 2025

Token Metrics Team
8
MIN

You've probably seen professional investors discuss tracking entire markets or specific sectors without the need to purchase countless individual assets. The concept behind this is indices—powerful tools that offer a broad yet targeted market view. In 2025, indices have advanced from simple benchmarks to sophisticated investment vehicles capable of adapting dynamically to market conditions, especially in the evolving crypto landscape.

What Is a Trading Index?

A trading index, also known as a market index, is a statistical measure that tracks the performance of a selected group of assets. Think of it as a basket containing multiple securities, weighted according to specific rules, designed to represent a particular segment of the market or a strategy. Indices serve as benchmarks allowing investors to:

  • Monitor market performance across various sectors or asset classes
  • Compare investment returns against broader market movements
  • Gain diversified exposure through a single instrument
  • Reduce individual security risk by spreading capital across multiple holdings

Unlike individual stocks or cryptocurrencies, indices themselves are not directly tradable assets. Instead, they are measurement tools that financial products like index funds, ETFs, or crypto indices replicate to provide easier access to markets.

How Traditional Stock Market Indices Work

Famous indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite each follow particular methodologies for selecting and weighting their constituent assets.

  • Market-Cap Weighted Indices (e.g., the S&P 500): These weight companies by their total market value. Larger companies like Apple or Microsoft have a bigger influence on the index movements.
  • Price-Weighted Indices (e.g., Dow Jones): These assign weights based on stock prices, giving more influence to stocks with higher prices regardless of the company's size.
  • Equal-Weighted Indices: All components are weighted equally, offering a more balanced exposure across holdings, regardless of size or price.

Indices typically undergo periodic rebalancing—quarterly, annually, or based on specific triggers—to keep their composition aligned with their intended strategy as markets evolve.

The Evolution: Crypto Indices in 2025

The crypto market has adapted and innovated on traditional index concepts. Crypto indices track baskets of digital assets, offering exposure to broad markets or specific sectors like DeFi, Layer-1 protocols, or metaverse tokens.

What sets crypto indices apart in 2025 is their ability to operate transparently on-chain. Unlike traditional indices that can lag in updates, crypto indices can rebalance frequently—sometimes even weekly—and display current holdings and transactions in real-time.

A typical crypto index might track the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, automatically updating rankings and weights, thus addressing the challenge of rapid narrative shifts and asset rotations common in crypto markets. They encourage owning diversified baskets to mitigate risks associated with individual coin failures or narrative collapses.

Why Indices Beat Individual Asset Picking

Research suggests that over 80% of active fund managers underperform their benchmarks over a decade. For individual investors, beating the market is even more challenging. Indices eliminate the need for exhaustive research, constant monitoring, and managing numerous assets, saving time while offering broad market exposure.

  • Time Efficiency: Automatic rebalancing frees up your schedule.
  • Diversification: Reduce the risk of single-asset failure by holding many assets simultaneously.
  • Emotional Discipline: Automated strategies prevent impulse decisions driven by market emotions.
  • Cost Savings: Batch trades and reduced transaction fees lower overall costs.
  • Operational Efficiency: Simplifies buying, monitoring, and rebalancing processes in volatile markets like crypto.

The Challenge of Traditional Buy-and-Hold Indices

Passive indices face a drawback: they remain fully invested during both bull and bear markets. When markets decline sharply, so do index values, which may not align with investors seeking downside protection.

This led to the development of active or regulated strategies that adjust exposure based on market regimes, blending diversification with risk management.

Introducing Regime-Switching Index Strategies

Regime-switching indices dynamically alter their asset allocations depending on market conditions. They identify different regimes—bullish or bearish—and adjust holdings accordingly:

  • Bull Market: Positions are fully allocated to risk assets, capturing upside potential.
  • Bear Market: Shift into defensive assets or stablecoins, protecting capital during downturns.

This sophisticated approach combines the benefits of broad index exposure with downside risk mitigation, offering a more adaptable investment strategy.

How TM Global 100 Revolutionizes Crypto Index Investing

The TM Global 100 index from Token Metrics exemplifies advanced index strategies tailored for crypto in 2025. It is a rules-based, systematic index that tracks the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap during bullish phases, and automatically shifts fully to stablecoins in bearish conditions.

This index maintains weekly rebalancing, full transparency, and easy access via one-click purchase through a secure, self-custodial wallet. The rules are transparent, and the index adapts swiftly to market changes, reducing operational complexity and risk.

Designed for both passive and active traders, it offers broad exposure, risk management, and operational simplicity—perfect for those seeking disciplined yet flexible crypto exposure.

Benefits of Index Trading vs. DIY Portfolio Management

  • Time Savings: Automation handles rebalancing and risk adjustments, saving hours of manual work.
  • Risk Management: Automatic stablecoin switches help protect capital during downturns.
  • Diversification: Exposure to the top market leaders without needing to predict performance.
  • Full Transparency: Detailed logs and real-time insights into holdings and changes.

Types of Trading Indices Explained

  • Market Indices: Track broad markets like stocks (S&P 500) or crypto (TM Global 100).
  • Sector Indices: Focus on specific industries or themes, such as DeFi or Layer-1 protocols.
  • Factor Indices: Weight assets based on characteristics like value or momentum, applying systematic strategies.
  • Strategic Indices: Implement active management techniques such as regime switching or momentum rotation—in which TM Global 100 participates through its dynamic allocation.

How to Evaluate a Trading Index

When considering an index, focus on these aspects:

  • Methodology Transparency: Are the rules clear and understandable?
  • Rebalancing Frequency: Is it suitable for the market’s speed? Weekly for crypto is common.
  • Fees and Costs: What are the trading, gas, and platform costs?
  • Historical Performance: Review past results for context, understanding they don’t guarantee future returns.
  • Risk Management: Does the index adapt to downturns or simply track markets passively?
  • Operational Ease: How straightforward is access and management?

Common Questions About Index Trading

Can I beat index returns with individual picks? Most individual investors struggle to beat benchmarks after costs and taxes, especially without significant resources.

Do indices work in crypto markets? Yes, and with certain advantages such as on-chain transparency and continuous trading, which facilitate active, rules-based strategies.

How is an index different from an ETF? An index is an underlying measurement or structured basket, while an ETF is an investment product tracking that index, often tradable like a stock.

How often do indices rebalance? In crypto, weekly or even daily rebalancing is common to keep pace with rapid market changes.

Are regime-switching indices market timing? They execute systematic, rules-based strategy adjustments based on signals—providing a form of automated market timing, not discretionary guesses.

Is Index Trading Right for You?

Consider index trading if you want broad exposure without constant oversight, value systematic strategies, prefer transparency, and aim to reduce operational complexity in your investments. Active traders with a focus on disciplined core positions also benefit from these tools, especially in volatile markets like crypto.

Alternatively, individual asset selection may suit those with proprietary research, active management interests, or a willingness to accept higher risk for potential outsized returns.

Getting Started with TM Global 100

If you're ready for next-generation crypto index investing:

  1. Visit the Token Metrics Indices hub.
  2. Explore detailed information about TM Global 100 and join the waitlist.
  3. Connect your wallet (optional) to preview the buy process.
  4. Review the index’s regime-switching rules and strategy modal.
  5. When available, click "Buy Index" for instant exposure with automatic risk management.

The embedded smart wallet app allows you to control your funds while enjoying seamless execution, with all fees and holdings transparently displayed before confirmation—most users complete the process swiftly.

Security and Risk Considerations

  • Self-Custody: The TM Global 100 index uses an embedded smart wallet where you hold the keys—your funds remain under your control.
  • Operational Transparency: All rules, holdings, and transaction logs are openly accessible to ensure clarity.
  • Fee Transparency: Estimated gas, platform fees, slippage, and other costs are visible prior to transaction approval.
  • Market Risks: Crypto’s inherent volatility persists, and no strategy can eliminate risk entirely.
  • Past Performance: Historical returns don't predict future results, especially in rapidly changing markets.

The Future of Index Trading

Technological advances, particularly on-chain programmability, are transforming index trading. Instant rebalancing, full transparency, automated risk management, and programmable strategies are empowering investors with tools previously limited to institutional players. In 2025, indices will not just passively track markets but actively manage risk, rotate assets, and adapt swiftly—making sophisticated strategies accessible to everyone.

Discover crypto gems with Token Metrics AI

Conclusion

Trading indices are invaluable for diversifying market exposure efficiently and systematically. Whether traditional stock indices or innovative crypto solutions like TM Global 100, these instruments democratize access to complex strategies, saving time and reducing operational hurdles. The progression toward active, regime-switching indices exemplifies the ongoing innovation in this space—aimed at balancing upside potential with downside protection. The TM Global 100 index exemplifies this trend by offering broad crypto exposure combined with automatic risk mitigation, transparency, and ease of access—making it a compelling tool for 2025 and beyond.

Disclaimer

This article is for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Crypto markets carry inherent risks, including significant volatility. Always conduct your own thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before investing.

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