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Best Custody Insurance Providers (2025)

Compare the top crypto custody insurance providers, coverage types, and capacity—then pick the right partner for your stack.
Sam Monac
7 min
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Why Custody Insurance Matters in September 2025

Institutions now hold billions in digital assets, and regulators expect professional risk transfer—not promises. Custody insurance providers bridge the gap by transferring losses from theft, key compromise, insider fraud, and other operational failures to regulated carriers and markets. In one line: custody insurance is a specialized policy that helps institutions recover financial losses tied to digital assets held in custody (cold, warm, or hot) when defined events occur. As spot ETF flows and bank re-entries accelerate, boards want auditable coverage, clear exclusions, and credible capacity. This guide highlights who actually writes, brokers, and structures meaningful digital-asset custody insurance in 2025, and how to pick among them. Secondary considerations include capacity, claims handling, supported custody models, and regional eligibility across Global, US, EU, and APAC.

How We Picked (Methodology & Scoring)

  • Scale/Liquidity (30%) — demonstrated capacity, panel depth (carriers/reinsurers/markets), and limits available for custody crime/specie.

  • Security & Underwriting Rigor (25%) — due diligence on key management, operational controls, audits, and loss prevention expectations.

  • Coverage Breadth (15%) — hot/warm/cold support, staking/slashing riders, social-engineering, wallet recovery, smart-contract add-ons.

  • Costs (15%) — indicative premiums/deductibles vs. limits; structure efficiency (excess, towers, programs).

  • UX (10%) — clarity of wordings, onboarding guidance, claims transparency.

  • Support (5%) — global service footprint, specialist teams (DART/crypto units), and education resources.

We prioritized official product/security pages, disclosures, and market directories; third-party datasets were used only for cross-checks. Last updated September 2025.

Top 10 Custody Insurance Providers in September 2025

1. Evertas — Best for Dedicated Crypto Crime & Custody Cover

Why Use It: Evertas is a specialty insurer focused on crypto, offering A-rated crime/specie programs tailored to cold, warm, and hot storage with practitioner-level key-management scrutiny. Their policies target the operational realities of custodians and platforms, not just generic cyber forms.
Best For: Qualified custodians, exchanges, trustees, prime brokers.
Notable Features:

  • Crime/specie coverage across storage tiers.
  • Crypto-native underwriting of private-key processes.
  • Lloyd’s-backed capacity with global reach. Consider If: You need a crypto-first insurer vs. a generalist broker.
    Alternatives: Marsh, Canopius.

Regions: Global.

2. Coincover — Best for Warranty-Backed Protection & Wallet Recovery

Why Use It: Coincover provides proactive fraud screening, disaster recovery for wallets, and warranty-backed protection that can sit alongside traditional insurance programs—useful for fintechs and custodians embedding safety into UX. Lloyd’s syndicates partnered with Coincover to launch wallet coverage initiatives. Best For: B2B platforms, fintechs, MPC vendors, exchanges seeking embedded protection.
Notable Features:

  • Real-time outbound transaction screening.
  • Wallet recovery and disaster-recovery tooling.
  • Warranty-backed protection that “makes it right” on covered failures. Consider If: You want prevention + recovery layered with traditional insurance.
    Alternatives: Evertas, Marsh.

Regions: Global.

3. Marsh (DART) — Best Global Broker for Building Towers

Why Use It: Marsh’s Digital Asset Risk Transfer team is a top broker for structuring capacity across crime/specie/D&O and connecting clients to specialist markets. They also advertise dedicated solutions for theft of digital assets held by institutions. Best For: Large exchanges, custodians, ETF service providers, banks.
Notable Features:

  • Specialist DART team and market access.
  • Program design across multiple lines (crime/specie/E&O).
  • Solutions aimed at institutional theft protection. Consider If: You need a broker to source multi-carrier, multi-region capacity.
    Alternatives: Aon, Lloyd’s Market.

Regions: Global.

4. Aon — Best for Custody Assessments + Crime/Specie Placement

Why Use It: Aon’s digital-asset practice brokers crime/specie, D&O, E&O, and cyber, and offers custody assessments and loss-scenario modeling—useful for underwriting readiness and board sign-off. Best For: Banks entering custody, prime brokers, tokenization platforms.
Notable Features:

  • Crime & specie for theft of digital assets.
  • Custody assessments and PML modeling.
  • Cyber/E&O overlays for staking and smart-contract exposure. Consider If: You want pre-underwriting hardening plus market reach.
    Alternatives: Marsh, Evertas.

Regions: Global.

5. Munich Re — Best for Reinsurance-Backed Crime & Staking Risk

Why Use It: As a top global reinsurer, Munich Re provides digital-asset crime policies designed for professional custodians and platforms, with coverage spanning external hacks, employee fraud, and certain third-party breaches—often supporting primary carriers. Best For: Carriers building programs; large platforms needing robust backing.
Notable Features:

  • Comprehensive crime policy for custodians and trading venues.
  • Options for staking and smart-contract risks.
  • Capacity and technical guidance at program level. Consider If: You’re assembling a tower requiring reinsurance strength.
    Alternatives: Lloyd’s Market, Canopius.

Regions: Global.

6. Lloyd’s Market — Best Marketplace to Source Specialist Syndicates

Why Use It: Lloyd’s is a global specialty market where syndicates (e.g., Atrium) have launched crypto wallet/custody solutions, often in partnership with firms like Coincover. Access via brokers to build bespoke custody crime/specie programs with flexible limits. Best For: Firms needing bespoke wording and multi-syndicate capacity.
Notable Features:

  • Marketplace access to expert underwriters.
  • Wallet/custody solutions pioneered by syndicates.
  • Adjustable limits and layered structures. Consider If: You use a broker (Marsh/Aon) to navigate syndicates.
    Alternatives: Munich Re (reinsurance), Canopius.

Regions: Global.

7. Canopius — Best Carrier for Cross-Class Custody (Crime/Specie/Extortion)

Why Use It: Canopius underwrites digital-asset custody coverage and has launched cross-class products (crime/specie/extortion). They’re also active in APAC via Lloyd’s Asia and have public case studies on large Asian capacity deployments. Best For: APAC custodians, global platforms seeking single-carrier leadership.
Notable Features:

  • Digital-asset custody product on Lloyd’s Asia.
  • Cross-class protection with extortion elements.
  • Demonstrated large committed capacity in Hong Kong. Consider If: You want a lead carrier with APAC presence.
    Alternatives: Lloyd’s Market, Evertas.

Regions: Global/APAC.

8. Relm Insurance — Best Specialty Carrier for Digital-Asset Businesses

Why Use It: Bermuda-based Relm focuses on emerging industries including digital assets, offering tailored specialty programs and partnering with web3 security firms. Useful for innovative custody models needing bespoke underwriting. Best For: Web3 platforms, custodians with non-standard architectures.
Notable Features:

  • Digital-asset specific coverage and insights.
  • Partnerships with cyber threat-intel providers.
  • Bermuda specialty flexibility for novel risks. Consider If: You need bespoke terms for unique custody stacks.
    Alternatives: Evertas, Canopius.

Regions: Global (Bermuda-domiciled).

9. Breach Insurance — Best for Exchange/Platform Embedded Coverage

Why Use It: Breach builds regulated crypto insurance products like Crypto Shield for platforms and investors, and offers institutional “Crypto Shield Pro” and platform-embedded options—useful for exchanges and custodians seeking retail-facing coverage. Best For: Exchanges, retail platforms, SMB crypto companies.
Notable Features:

  • Regulated products targeting custody at qualified venues.
  • Institutional policy options (Pro).
  • Wallet risk assessments to prep for underwriting. Consider If: You want customer-facing protection aligned to your stack.
    Alternatives: Coincover, Aon.

Regions: US/Global.

10. Chainproof — Best Add-On for Smart-Contract/Slashing Risks

Why Use It: While not a custody crime policy, Chainproof (incubated by Quantstamp; reinsured backing) offers regulated insurance for smart contracts and slashing—valuable as an adjunct when custodians support staking or programmatic flows tied to custody. Best For: Custodians/exchanges with staking, DeFi integrations, or on-chain workflows.
Notable Features:

  • Regulated smart-contract and slashing insurance.
  • Backing and provenance via Quantstamp ecosystem.
  • Bermuda regulatory progress noted in 2024-25. Consider If: You need to cover the on-chain leg alongside custody.
    Alternatives: Munich Re (staking), Marsh.

Regions: Global.

Decision Guide: Best By Use Case

  • Regulated U.S. programs & towers: Marsh, Aon, Lloyd’s Market.
  • Crypto-native underwriting: Evertas.
  • APAC leadership capacity: Canopius (Lloyd’s Asia).
  • Embedded protection/wallet recovery: Coincover.
  • Reinsurance strength for large towers: Munich Re.
  • Retail/platform-facing add-ons: Breach Insurance.
  • On-chain/Slashing riders: Chainproof.
  • Specialty/innovative risk placements: Relm Insurance.

How to Choose the Right Custody Insurance (Checklist)

  • Confirm eligible regions/regulators (US/EU/APAC) and your entity domicile.

  • Map storage tiers (cold/warm/hot/MPC) to coverage and sub-limits.

  • Validate wordings/exclusions (internal theft, collusion, social engineering, vendor breaches).

  • Align limits/deductibles with AUM, TVL, and worst-case loss scenarios.

  • Ask for claims playbooks and incident response timelines.

  • Review audits & controls (SOC 2, key ceremonies, disaster recovery).

  • Query reinsurance backing and panel stability.

  • Red flags: vague wordings; “cyber-only” policies for custody crime; no clarity on key compromise.

Use Token Metrics With Any Custody Insurance Provider

AI Ratings to vet venues and counterparties you work with.

Narrative Detection to identify risk-on/off regimes impacting exposure.

Portfolio Optimization to size custody-related strategies.

Alerts/Signals to monitor market stress that could correlate with loss events.
Workflow: Research → Select provider via broker → Bind coverage → Operate and monitor with Token Metrics alerts.

 Primary CTA: Start free trial

Security & Compliance Tips

  • Enforce MPC/hardware-isolated keys and dual-control operations.

  • Use 2FA, withdrawal whitelists, and policy controls across org accounts.

  • Keep KYC/AML and sanctions screening current for counterparties.

  • Practice RFQ segregation and least-privilege for ops staff.

  • Run tabletop exercises for incident/claims readiness.

This article is for research/education, not financial advice.

Beginner Mistakes to Avoid

  • Assuming cyber insurance = custody crime coverage.

  • Buying limits that don’t match hot-wallet exposure.

  • Skipping vendor-risk riders for sub-custodians and wallet providers.

  • Not documenting key ceremonies and access policies.

  • Waiting until after an incident to engage a broker/insurer.

FAQs

What does crypto custody insurance cover?
Typically theft, key compromise, insider fraud, and sometimes extortion or vendor breaches under defined conditions. Coverage varies widely by wording; verify hot/warm/cold definitions and exclusions.

Do I need both crime and specie?
Crime commonly addresses employee dishonesty and external theft; specie focuses on physical loss/damage to assets in secure storage. Many carriers blend elements for digital assets—ask how your program handles each.

Can staking be insured?
Yes—some reinsurers/insurers offer staking/slashing riders or separate policies; smart-contract risk often requires additional cover like Chainproof.

How much capacity is available?
Depends on controls and market appetite. Lloyd’s syndicates and reinsurers like Munich Re can support sizable towers when risk controls are strong.

How do I reduce premiums?
Improve key-management controls, segregate duties, minimize hot exposure, complete independent audits, and adopt continuous monitoring/fraud screening (e.g., Coincover-style prevention).

Are exchanges’ “insured” claims enough?
Not always—check if coverage is platform-wide, per-customer, warranty-backed, or contingent. Ask for wordings, limits, and who the named insureds are.

Conclusion + Related Reads

If you need a crypto-first insurer, start with Evertas. Building a global tower? Engage Marsh or Aon across the Lloyd’s Market and reinsurers like Munich Re. For APAC-localized capacity, consider Canopius; for embedded protection, weigh Coincover or Breach. Add Chainproof if staking/DeFi exposure touches custody workflows.

Related Reads:

  • Best Cryptocurrency Exchanges 2025

  • Top Derivatives Platforms 2025

  • Top Institutional Custody Providers 2025
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Recent Posts

Research

Hedera (HBAR) 2027 Price Targets: Token Metrics Scenarios

Token Metrics Team
8 min read

Portfolio Context for Hedera: Diversification in the 2027 Landscape

Layer 1 tokens like Hedera represent bets on specific blockchain architectures winning developer and user mindshare. HBAR carries both systematic crypto risk and unsystematic risk from Hedera's technical roadmap execution and ecosystem growth. Multi-chain thesis suggests diversifying across several L1s rather than concentrating in one, since predicting which chains will dominate remains difficult.

The projections below show how HBAR might perform under different market cap scenarios. While Hedera may have strong fundamentals, prudent portfolio construction balances L1 exposure across Ethereum, competing smart contract platforms, and Bitcoin to capture the sector without overexposure to any single chain's fate.

  

Disclosure

Educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, do your own research and manage risk.

How to read it: Each band blends cycle analogues and market-cap share math with TA guardrails. Base assumes steady adoption and neutral or positive macro. Moon layers in a liquidity boom. Bear assumes muted flows and tighter liquidity.

TM Agent baseline:

Token Metrics lead metric for Hedera, cashtag $HBAR, is a TM Grade of 61.8%, which maps to Hold, and the trading signal is bearish, indicating short-term downward momentum. This means Token Metrics views $HBAR as having reasonably solid fundamentals but limited conviction for strong outperformance in the near term.

A concise long-term numeric view for a 12-month horizon: Token Metrics scenarios center around a range of about $0.06 to $0.18, with a base case near $0.10, reflecting steady ecosystem growth, moderate adoption of Hedera services, and continued enterprise partnerships. Implication: if Bitcoin and broader crypto risk appetite improve, $HBAR could revisit the higher end, while a risk-off market or slower-than-expected developer traction would keep it toward the lower bound.

Live details: Token Details

Key Takeaways

  • Scenario driven, outcomes hinge on total crypto market cap, higher liquidity and adoption lift the bands.
  • Single-asset concentration amplifies both upside and downside versus diversified approaches.
  • Fundamentals: Fundamental Grade 81.08% (Community 74%, Tokenomics 100%, Exchange 100%, VC 59%, DeFi Scanner 85%).
  • Technology: Technology Grade 62.39% (Activity 58%, Repository 68%, Collaboration 74%, Security 56%, DeFi Scanner 85%).
  • TM Agent gist: bearish short term, range view with upside if crypto risk appetite improves.
  • Education only, not financial advice.

Scenario Analysis

Token Metrics scenarios span four market cap tiers, each representing different levels of crypto market maturity and liquidity:

  • 8T: At an 8 trillion dollar total crypto market cap, HBAR projects to $0.27 in bear conditions, $0.32 in the base case, and $0.37 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 16T: Doubling the market to 16 trillion expands the range to $0.42 (bear), $0.57 (base), and $0.72 (moon).  
  • 23T: At 23 trillion, the scenarios show $0.56, $0.82, and $1.07 respectively.  
  • 31T: In the maximum liquidity scenario of 31 trillion, HBAR could reach $0.71 (bear), $1.07 (base), or $1.42 (moon).  

These ranges illustrate potential outcomes for concentrated HBAR positions, but investors should weigh whether single-asset exposure matches their risk tolerance or whether diversified strategies better suit their objectives.

The Case for Diversified Index Exposure

Professional investors across asset classes prefer diversified exposure over concentrated bets for good reason. Hedera faces numerous risks - technical vulnerabilities, competitive pressure, regulatory targeting, team execution failure - any of which could derail HBAR performance independent of broader market conditions. Token Metrics Indices spread this risk across one hundred tokens, ensuring no single failure destroys your crypto portfolio.

Diversification becomes especially critical in crypto given the sector's nascency and rapid evolution. Technologies and narratives that dominate today may be obsolete within years as the space matures. By holding HBAR exclusively, you're betting not only on crypto succeeding but on Hedera specifically remaining relevant. Index approaches hedge against picking the wrong horse while maintaining full crypto exposure.

Tax efficiency and rebalancing challenges also favor indices over managing concentrated positions. Token Metrics Indices handle portfolio construction, rebalancing, and position sizing systematically, eliminating the emotional and logistical burden of doing this manually with multiple tokens.

Early access to Token Metrics Indices 

What Is Hedera?

Hedera is a high-performance public ledger that emphasizes speed, low fees, and energy efficiency, positioning itself for enterprise and decentralized applications. It uses a unique Hashgraph consensus that enables fast finality and high throughput, paired with a council-governed model that targets real-world use cases like payments, tokenization, and decentralized identity.

HBAR is the native token used for fees, staking, and network security, and it supports smart contracts and decentralized file storage. Adoption draws from partnerships and integrations, though decentralization levels and reliance on institutional demand are often discussed in the community.

Token Metrics AI Analysis

Token Metrics AI provides comprehensive context on Hedera's positioning and challenges.

  • Vision: Hedera's vision is to provide a secure, fair, and scalable distributed ledger technology platform that supports decentralized applications and enterprise use cases globally. It emphasizes governed decentralization, aiming to combine the benefits of distributed systems with responsible oversight through its council-based governance model.
  • Problem: Many blockchain networks face trade-offs between scalability, security, and decentralization, often resulting in high transaction fees, slow processing times, or environmental concerns. Hedera aims to address these limitations by offering a system that supports high throughput and fast finality without sacrificing security or incurring significant energy costs, making it suitable for both enterprise and decentralized applications.
  • Solution: Hedera uses the Hashgraph consensus algorithm, a directed acyclic graph (DAG)-based approach that achieves asynchronous Byzantine fault tolerance, enabling fast, secure, and fair transaction processing. The network supports smart contracts, tokenization, and decentralized file storage, with HBAR serving as the native token for fees, staking, and network security. Its council-governed model aims to ensure stability and trust, particularly for institutional and enterprise users.
  • Market Analysis: Hedera operates in the Layer 1 blockchain space, competing with high-throughput platforms like Solana, Avalanche, and Algorand, while differentiating through its Hashgraph consensus and governed governance model. It targets enterprise adoption, focusing on use cases in supply chain, payments, and asset tokenization, which sets it apart from more community-driven or DeFi-centric networks. Adoption is influenced by strategic partnerships, developer engagement, and real-world integrations rather than speculative activity. Key risks include competition from established and emerging blockchains, regulatory scrutiny around governance tokens, and challenges in achieving broad decentralization.

Fundamental and Technology Snapshot from Token Metrics

Fundamental Grade: 81.08% (Community 74%, Tokenomics 100%, Exchange 100%, VC 59%, DeFi Scanner 85%).  

Technology Grade: 62.39% (Activity 58%, Repository 68%, Collaboration 74%, Security 56%, DeFi Scanner 85%).  

Catalysts That Skew Bullish

  • Institutional and retail access expands with ETFs, listings, and integrations.
  • Macro tailwinds from lower real rates and improving liquidity.
  • Product or roadmap milestones such as upgrades, scaling, or partnerships.

Risks That Skew Bearish

  • Macro risk-off from tightening or liquidity shocks.
  • Regulatory actions or infrastructure outages.
  • Concentration or validator economics and competitive displacement.
  • Protocol-specific execution risk and competitive pressure from alternatives.

FAQs

Can HBAR reach $1.00?

Yes. Based on the scenarios, HBAR could reach $1.00 or above in the higher tiers. The 23T tier projects $1.07 in the moon case and the 31T tier projects $1.42 in the moon case. Achieving this requires broad market cap expansion and Hedera maintaining competitive position. Not financial advice.

What price could HBAR reach in the moon case?

Moon case projections range from $0.37 at 8T to $1.42 at 31T. These scenarios assume maximum liquidity expansion and strong Hedera adoption. Diversified strategies aim to capture upside across multiple tokens rather than betting exclusively on any single moon scenario. Not financial advice.

What's the risk/reward profile for HBAR?

Risk and reward span from $0.27 in the lowest bear case to $1.42 in the highest moon case. Downside risks include regulatory or infrastructure setbacks and competitive pressure, while upside drivers include improved liquidity and enterprise adoption. Concentrated positions amplify both tails, while diversified strategies smooth outcomes.  

Next Steps

Disclosure

Educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, concentration amplifies risk, and diversification is a fundamental principle of prudent portfolio construction. Do your own research and manage risk appropriately.

Research

Predicting LEO Token Price in 2027: Scenario Analysis & On-Chain Scores

Token Metrics Team
5 min read

LEO Token Valuation Framework: Market Cap Scenarios

Exchange tokens desrive value from trading volume and platform revenue, creating linkage between crypto market activity and LEO price action. LEO Token delivers utility through reduced trading fees and enhanced platform services on Bitfinex and iFinex across Ethereum and EOS. Token Metrics scenarios below model LEO outcomes across different total crypto market cap environments.

  

Disclosure

Educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, do your own research and manage risk.

How to read it: Each band blends cycle analogues and market-cap share math with TA guardrails. Base assumes steady adoption and neutral or positive macro. Moon layers in a liquidity boom. Bear assumes muted flows and tighter liquidity.

TM Agent baseline: Token Metrics probabilities favor a modest range between about $5 and $15, with a base case around current levels near $9, conditional on exchange token utility remaining steady, and downside risk if centralized exchange macro pressure increases.

Live details: Token Details 

Key Takeaways

  • Scenario driven, outcomes hinge on total crypto market cap, higher liquidity and adoption lift the bands.
  • TM Agent gist: 12-month horizon favors $5 to $15 range with base case near $9, contingent on stable exchange utility.
  • Education only, not financial advice.

Scenario Analysis

Token Metrics scenarios span four market cap tiers reflecting different crypto market maturity levels:

  • 8T: At 8 trillion total crypto market cap, LEO projects to $11.35 in bear conditions, $12.92 in the base case, and $14.48 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 16T: At 16 trillion total crypto market cap, LEO projects to $14.82 in bear conditions, $19.51 in the base case, and $24.20 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 23T: At 23 trillion total crypto market cap, LEO projects to $18.28 in bear conditions, $26.10 in the base case, and $33.92 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 31T: At 31 trillion total crypto market cap, LEO projects to $21.74 in bear conditions, $32.69 in the base case, and $43.63 in bullish scenarios.  

What Is LEO Token?

LEO Token is the native utility token of the Bitfinex and iFinex ecosystem, designed to provide benefits like reduced trading fees, enhanced lending and borrowing terms, and access to exclusive features on the platform. It operates on both Ethereum (ERC-20) and EOS blockchains, offering flexibility for users.

The primary role of LEO is to serve as a utility token within the exchange ecosystem, enabling fee discounts, participation in token sales, and other platform-specific advantages. Common usage patterns include holding LEO to reduce trading costs and utilizing it for enhanced platform services, positioning it primarily within the exchange token sector.

Catalysts That Skew Bullish

  • Institutional and retail access expands with ETFs, listings, and integrations.
  • Macro tailwinds from lower real rates and improving liquidity.
  • Product or roadmap milestones such as upgrades, scaling, or partnerships.

Risks That Skew Bearish

  • Macro risk-off from tightening or liquidity shocks.
  • Regulatory actions or infrastructure outages.
  • Concentration or validator economics and competitive displacement.

FAQs

What gives LEO value?

LEO accrues value through reduced trading fees and enhanced platform services within the Bitfinex and iFinex ecosystem. Demand drivers include exchange usage and access to platform features, while supply dynamics follow the token’s exchange utility design. Value realization depends on platform activity and user adoption.

What price could LEO reach in the moon case?

Moon case projections range from $14.48 at 8T to $43.63 at 31T. These scenarios require maximum market cap expansion and strong exchange activity. Not financial advice.  

Next Steps

Curious how these forecasts are made? Token Metrics delivers LEO on-chain grades, forecasts, and deep research on 6,000+ tokens. Instantly compare fundamentals, on-chain scores, and AI-powered predictions.

Disclosure

Educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, do your own research and manage risk.

Research

Sui (SUI) 2027 Price Targets: Token Metrics Scenarios

Token Metrics Team
8 min read

Portfolio Context for Sui: Diversification in the 2027 Landscape

Layer 1 tokens like Sui represent bets on specific blockchain architectures winning developer and user mindshare. SUI carries both systematic crypto risk and unsystematic risk from Sui's technical roadmap execution and ecosystem growth. Multi-chain thesis suggests diversifying across several L1s rather than concentrating in one, since predicting which chains will dominate remains difficult.

The projections below show how SUI might perform under different market cap scenarios. While Sui may have strong fundamentals, prudent portfolio construction balances L1 exposure across Ethereum, competing smart contract platforms, and Bitcoin to capture the sector without overexposure to any single chain's fate.

  

Disclosure

Educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, do your own research and manage risk.

Each band blends cycle analogues and market-cap share math with TA guardrails. Base assumes steady adoption and neutral or positive macro. Moon layers in a liquidity boom. Bear assumes muted flows and tighter liquidity.

TM Agent baseline: Token Metrics lead metric for Sui, cashtag $SUI, is a TM Grade of 67.4%, which maps to a Hold, and the trading signal is bearish, indicating short-term downward momentum. This suggests Token Metrics sees $SUI as having reasonable fundamentals but not yet strong conviction for substantial outperformance, while near-term momentum is negative and could limit rallies. Market context, brief: Bitcoin’s price direction is currently the primary market driver, and a risk-off Bitcoin environment increases downside pressure on layer-1 tokens like $SUI.

Live details: Token Details 

The Case for Diversified Index Exposure

Professional investors across asset classes prefer diversified exposure over concentrated bets for good reason. Sui faces numerous risks - technical vulnerabilities, competitive pressure, regulatory targeting, team execution failure - any of which could derail SUI performance independent of broader market conditions. Token Metrics Indices spread this risk across one hundred tokens, ensuring no single failure destroys your crypto portfolio.

Diversification becomes especially critical in crypto given the sector's nascency and rapid evolution. Technologies and narratives that dominate today may be obsolete within years as the space matures. By holding SUI exclusively, you're betting not only on crypto succeeding but on Sui specifically remaining relevant. Index approaches hedge against picking the wrong horse while maintaining full crypto exposure.

Early access to Token Metrics Indices

Key Takeaways

  • Scenario driven, outcomes hinge on total crypto market cap, higher liquidity and adoption lift the bands.
  • Single-asset concentration amplifies both upside and downside versus diversified approaches.
  • Fundamentals: Fundamental Grade 77.60% (Community 80%, Tokenomics 60%, Exchange 100%, VC 76%, DeFi Scanner 75%).
  • Technology: Technology Grade 79.06% (Activity 77%, Repository 72%, Collaboration 89%, Security N/A, DeFi Scanner 75%).
  • TM Agent gist: Hold grade, bearish trading signal, near-term negative momentum.
  • Education only, not financial advice.

Scenario Analysis

Token Metrics scenarios span four market cap tiers, each representing different levels of crypto market maturity and liquidity:

  • 8T: At a 8 trillion total crypto market cap, SUI projects to $4.64 in bear conditions, $6.29 in the base case, and $7.94 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 16T: At a 16 trillion total crypto market cap, SUI projects to $8.93 in bear conditions, $13.88 in the base case, and $18.83 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 23T: At a 23 trillion total crypto market cap, SUI projects to $13.22 in bear conditions, $21.47 in the base case, and $29.72 in bullish scenarios.  
  • 31T: At a 31 trillion total crypto market cap, SUI projects to $17.50 in bear conditions, $29.05 in the base case, and $40.61 in bullish scenarios.  

These ranges illustrate potential outcomes for concentrated SUI positions, but investors should weigh whether single-asset exposure matches their risk tolerance or whether diversified strategies better suit their objectives.

What Is Sui?

Sui is a layer-1 blockchain network designed for general-purpose smart contracts and scalable user experiences. It targets high throughput and fast settlement, aiming to support applications that need low-latency interactions and horizontal scaling.

SUI is the native token used for transaction fees and staking, aligning validator incentives and securing the network. It underpins activity across common crypto sectors such as NFTs and DeFi while the ecosystem builds developer tooling and integrations.

Token Metrics AI Analysis

Vision: Sui aims to create a highly scalable and low-latency blockchain platform that enables seamless user experiences for decentralized applications. Its vision centers on making blockchain technology accessible and efficient for mainstream applications by removing traditional bottlenecks in transaction speed and cost.

Problem: Many existing blockchains face trade-offs between scalability, security, and decentralization, often resulting in high fees and slow transaction finality during peak usage. This limits their effectiveness for applications requiring instant settlement, frequent interactions, or large user bases, such as games or social platforms. Sui addresses the need for a network that can scale horizontally without sacrificing speed or cost-efficiency.

Solution: Sui uses a unique object-centric blockchain model and the Move programming language to enable parallel transaction processing, allowing high throughput and instant finality for many operations. Its consensus mechanism, Narwhal and Tusk, is optimized for speed and scalability by decoupling transaction dissemination from ordering. The network supports smart contracts, NFTs, and decentralized applications, with an emphasis on developer ease and user experience. Staking is available for network security, aligning with common proof-of-stake utility patterns.

Market Analysis: Sui competes in the layer-1 blockchain space with platforms like Solana, Avalanche, and Aptos, all targeting high-performance decentralized applications. It differentiates itself through its object-based data model and parallel execution, aiming for superior scalability in specific workloads. Adoption drivers include developer tooling, ecosystem incentives, and integration with wallets and decentralized exchanges. The broader market for high-throughput blockchains is driven by demand for scalable Web3 applications, though it faces risks from technical complexity, regulatory uncertainty, and intense competition.

Fundamental and Technology Snapshot from Token Metrics

Fundamental Grade: 77.60% (Community 80%, Tokenomics 60%, Exchange 100%, VC 76%, DeFi Scanner 75%).  

Technology Grade: 79.06% (Activity 77%, Repository 72%, Collaboration 89%, Security N/A, DeFi Scanner 75%).  

Catalysts That Skew Bullish

  • Institutional and retail access expands with ETFs, listings, and integrations.
  • Macro tailwinds from lower real rates and improving liquidity.
  • Product or roadmap milestones such as upgrades, scaling, or partnerships.

Risks That Skew Bearish

  • Macro risk-off from tightening or liquidity shocks.
  • Regulatory actions or infrastructure outages.
  • Concentration or validator economics and competitive displacement.
  • Protocol-specific execution risk and competitive pressure from alternatives.

How Token Metrics Can Help

Token Metrics empowers you to analyze Sui and hundreds of digital assets with AI-driven ratings, on-chain and fundamental data, and index solutions to manage portfolio risk smartly in a rapidly evolving crypto market.

FAQs

What price could SUI reach in the moon case?

Moon case projections range from $7.94 at 8T to $40.61 at 31T. These scenarios assume maximum liquidity expansion and strong Sui adoption. Diversified strategies aim to capture upside across multiple tokens rather than betting exclusively on any single moon scenario. Not financial advice.

What's the risk/reward profile for SUI?

Risk/reward spans from $4.64 to $40.61. Downside risks include regulatory pressure and competitive displacement, while upside drivers include ecosystem growth and favorable liquidity. Concentrated positions amplify both tails, while diversified strategies smooth outcomes.

What are the biggest risks to SUI?

Key risks include regulatory actions, technical issues, competitive pressure from other L1s, and adverse market liquidity. Concentrated SUI positions magnify exposure to these risks. Diversified strategies spread risk across tokens with different profiles, reducing portfolio vulnerability to any single failure point.  

Next Steps

Disclosure
Educational purposes only, not financial advice. Crypto is volatile, concentration amplifies risk, and diversification is a fundamental principle of prudent portfolio construction. Do your own research and manage risk appropriately.

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