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What is Bitcoin Halving and How Does it Impact the Market?

Learn everything about Bitcoin halving and its impact on the crypto market, in this descriptive guide.
Token Metrics Team
7 Minutes
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Over the years, Bitcoin has gained significant popularity and adoption as a means of payment and investment, with a growing number of merchants accepting it as a form of payment and an increasing number of investors buying and holding it as a store of value.

What is Bitcoin Halving?

Bitcoin Halving is a highly anticipated event that takes place every four years in the world of cryptocurrency. It is a pre-programmed adjustment in the Bitcoin blockchain protocol that reduces the mining rewards by 50% for each new block added to the network.

The purpose of the halving is to ensure that the rate of Bitcoin inflation remains under control, and that the total supply of Bitcoin never exceeds 21 million.

The upcoming Bitcoin Halving event has generated a lot of buzz and interest among investors and traders, as it is expected to have a significant impact on the price and overall market sentiment. In this blog post, we will dive deep into the topic of Bitcoin Halving, discussing what it is, how it works, and what to expect from the upcoming halving event.

When was the first Bitcoin Halving?

The first Bitcoin halving occurred on November 28, 2012, approximately four years after the cryptocurrency's launch. At that time, the mining reward for each block added to the Bitcoin blockchain was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

This event marked a significant milestone in the Bitcoin ecosystem and signaled the beginning of a new era in the cryptocurrency's monetary policy. Since then, there have been two additional Bitcoin halvings, one in 2016 and another in 2020, with the mining reward reduced to 12.5 BTC and 6.25 BTC, respectively.

The next Bitcoin halving is expected to occur in 2024, at which point the mining reward will be further reduced to 3.125 BTC per block.

Bitcoin Halving Chart

A Bitcoin halving chart is a graphical representation that shows the historical and projected future dates of Bitcoin halvings, as well as the corresponding changes in the Bitcoin mining reward. 

“The chart typically includes a timeline of Bitcoin's history, starting with its launch in 2009, and marks the dates of each halving event as vertical lines. The halving events are also accompanied by a reduction in the Bitcoin mining reward, which is depicted on the chart as a downward sloping curve.”

Bitcoin Halving Chart

Bitcoin halving charts are used by investors, traders, and analysts to track the impact of halvings on the Bitcoin price and market sentiment. These charts can help in predicting potential price movements based on historical trends, as well as analyzing the impact of halvings on the overall supply and demand dynamics of Bitcoin.

Several online platforms offer Bitcoin halving charts that are frequently updated with the latest data and projections. These charts typically include additional features such as zooming, filtering, and customization options to allow users to analyze the data in more detail.

Overall, Bitcoin halving charts are a useful tool for anyone interested in understanding the impact of halving events on the Bitcoin ecosystem.

How does Bitcoin Halving work?

Bitcoin halving is a pre-programmed adjustment to the Bitcoin blockchain protocol that occurs approximately every four years. The process is designed to reduce the amount of new Bitcoin created with each block added to the blockchain by 50%.

The halving is a critical aspect of Bitcoin's monetary policy and serves to control the rate of inflation in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Bitcoin halving works by reducing the mining rewards that Bitcoin miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain. When Bitcoin was first launched in 2009, the mining reward was set at 50 BTC per block.

After the first halving in 2012, the mining reward was reduced to 25 BTC per block. The second halving in 2016 further reduced the reward to 12.5 BTC per block, and the most recent halving in 2020 brought the reward down to 6.25 BTC per block.

The process of Bitcoin halving is automatic and built into the Bitcoin protocol, with a predetermined schedule that reduces the mining reward by half after every 210,000 blocks are added to the blockchain.

This cycle continues until the total supply of Bitcoin reaches 21 million, which is the maximum limit set by the protocol. Once the limit is reached, no new Bitcoins will be created, and miners will rely solely on transaction fees for their rewards.

The impact of Bitcoin halving on the mining industry and overall market sentiment can be significant. As the mining reward is reduced, it becomes more difficult and expensive for miners to earn a profit, leading to a potential decrease in the supply of new Bitcoins and an increase in their price.

Additionally, the halving can create uncertainty and volatility in the Bitcoin market, as investors and traders adjust their strategies based on the changing supply and demand dynamics.

Will BTC price go up or down after halving?

Predicting the exact direction of Bitcoin price movement after halving is difficult, as it is subject to various factors such as market sentiment, demand and supply, and overall adoption of the cryptocurrency. However, based on historical trends, many analysts and experts believe that Bitcoin price tends to go up after halving.

One reason for this belief is the reduction in the rate of new Bitcoin supply. With each halving event, the number of new Bitcoins entering the market decreases, creating a supply shock that can drive the price up due to increased scarcity.

Additionally, the halving can lead to a decrease in the profitability of Bitcoin mining, which could result in some miners leaving the network, reducing the overall supply of new Bitcoin even further.

However, it is also important to note that the impact of halving on Bitcoin price may not be immediate, and the price may experience fluctuations and volatility in the short term.

It is also worth considering that Bitcoin's price is influenced by a range of other factors beyond halving, such as macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and investor sentiment.

Also Read - Is Bitcoin Dead? - Complete Analysis for BTC Investors

Impact of Halving on Bitcoin Miners

Bitcoin halving has a significant impact on Bitcoin miners, as it reduces the reward they receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain. With each halving event, the mining reward is reduced by half, which means that miners must work harder and invest more resources to earn the same amount of Bitcoin.

The reduction in mining rewards can lead to a decrease in profitability for miners, making it more challenging for them to cover their costs and remain profitable. This can lead to smaller miners being pushed out of the market, leaving only the most efficient and well-capitalized miners in the game.

However, there are some ways that miners can adapt to the changing market conditions after halving. For example, miners can lower their operating costs by upgrading their equipment to more efficient models, moving to locations with lower energy costs, or forming mining pools to share resources and reduce competition.

Additionally, as the price of Bitcoin tends to increase after halving, miners may be able to offset the reduced mining rewards by earning more from transaction fees and appreciation in the value of their Bitcoin holdings.

Overall, the impact of halving on Bitcoin miners depends on several factors, such as the cost of mining, the price of Bitcoin, and the level of competition in the market.

While the reduction in mining rewards can create challenges for miners, it is also an essential aspect of Bitcoin's monetary policy, which ensures the controlled release of new Bitcoin into the market and the maintenance of its value over time.

The Bottom Line

In conclusion, Bitcoin halving is a critical aspect of the Bitcoin protocol that serves to control the rate of inflation in the Bitcoin ecosystem.

The process of halving reduces the mining rewards that Bitcoin miners receive for adding new blocks to the blockchain by 50% every four years, until the maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoins is reached.

While the impact of halving on the Bitcoin market and miners can be significant, it is also an essential aspect of Bitcoin's monetary policy, ensuring the controlled release of new Bitcoin into the market and the maintenance of its value over time.

As Bitcoin continues to gain wider adoption and recognition as a legitimate asset, the impact of halving events is likely to become more pronounced, making it an important consideration for investors, traders, and Bitcoin enthusiasts alike.

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Building your own crypto basket sounds simple—until you’re juggling 10–50 tickers, spreadsheets, rebalance rules, spreads across chains, and the constant fear of missing regime turns. A crypto index removes that manual grind: TM Global 100 holds the top 100 assets when the market is bullish and moves fully to stablecoins when it’s not, with weekly rebalancing and full transparency of holdings and transactions. One click to buy, zero maintenance to keep up.

→ Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.

Why Indices Matters in October 2025

In 2025, time and execution quality are alpha. Manually maintaining a DIY basket multiplies complexity: fragmented liquidity, multiple wallets, chain fees, and coordination across exchanges—all while markets move. A rules-based index compresses that overhead into a single, auditable product with pre-declared logic and scheduled upkeep.

Definition (snippet-ready): A crypto index is a rules-based basket of digital assets that rebalances on a set schedule and/or when market conditions change, so you don’t have to micromanage individual coins.

Traders searching “DIY crypto basket,” “regime switching,” or “weekly rebalancing” usually want one thing: broad exposure without the constant maintenance and the regret of missed rebalances. That’s the exact problem Token Metrics Global 100 addresses with weekly updates and regime switching to stablecoins when signals turn bearish.

How the TM Global 100 Index Works (Plain English)

  • Regime switching: When signals are bullish, the index holds the top 100 by market cap; when bearish, it exits fully to stablecoins to wait for re-entry.
  • Weekly rebalancing: Aligns weights and constituents with updated rankings; regime changes can also trigger full portfolio shifts.
  • Transparency: Strategy modal explains selection & rebalancing rules; Holdings show a treemap/table; Index Transactions log all changes.

What you’ll see on launch: Price tile, signal gauge, tokens=100, “rebalances weekly,” contract address, and a Buy Index button with a ~90-second live demo flow showcased in launch content.

→ See the strategy and rules. (TM Global 100 strategy)

Benefits at a Glance (Why This Beats DIY)

  • Time saved: Replace multi-exchange shopping, wallet hops, and manual allocations with one click.
  • Fewer missed rebalances: Weekly cadence + visible transactions log reduce the cost of “I’ll do it tomorrow.”
  • Slippage discipline: Centralized execution with declared slippage/fee previews helps contain surprises vs piecemeal orders.
  • Regime switching: Codified “risk-off” behavior into stablecoins during bears, so you don’t have to white-knuckle exits. (No performance promises.)
  • Transparency: Strategy modal → Holdings treemap/table → Transactions log—see exactly what you hold and when it changed.

Proof cues (What you’ll see): Gauge (market signal) → Treemap (allocations) → Transactions Log → ~90-second Buy flow.

Step-by-Step: How to Get Early Access (Waitlist)

  1. Open the Token Metrics Indices hub and select TM Global 100.
  2. Add your email to the waitlist so you’re first in line at launch.
  3. (Optional) Connect your wallet—our embedded, self-custodial smart wallet supports major chains.
  4. On launch day, you’ll see the price tile, signal gauge, and “Buy Index.”
  5. Review the strategy, expected fees/slippage, and holdings; confirm to purchase.
  6. Track your position in My Indices; rebalances and any regime switches will appear in the transactions log.
→ Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.

Decision Guide: Is This Right for You?

  • Hands-Off Allocator: Want broad exposure without micromanaging? Consider a rules-based core that updates weekly.
  • Active Trader: Keep your bets, but use an index core that may step to stablecoins during bears.
  • TM Member/Prospect: Prefer transparent holdings, logs, and a simple buy/sell flow.
  • Time-Strapped Professional: Reduce ops work (wallets, slippage math, spreadsheets) to nearly zero.
  • New to Crypto: Learn with training wheels—strategy modal, tooltips, and clear risk language.
  • DIY Purist: If you enjoy tinkering with weights daily, DIY could still fit—just know weekly index upkeep is handled for you.

FAQs

What is a crypto index?

A rules-based basket of assets with scheduled rebalancing and, in TM Global 100’s case, a regime switch between top-100 exposure and stablecoins.

How often does the index rebalance?

Weekly, with additional full-portfolio switches when the market regime changes.

What triggers the move to stablecoins?

A proprietary market signal. When bearish, the index exits tokens into stablecoins and waits for a bullish re-entry.

Can I fund with USDC or fiat?

Funding options surface based on your connected wallet and supported chains; USDC payouts are supported on selling. (Stablecoin entry may come later.)

Is the wallet custodial?

No. The embedded wallet is self-custodial; you control funds.

How are fees shown?

The Buy flow shows estimated gas, platform fee, max slippage, and minimum expected value before you confirm.

How do I join the waitlist?

Visit the Indices hub → TM Global 100 → enter your email to get notified and first access at launch.

Security, Risk & Transparency

  • Self-custody: You transact via an embedded, self-custodial smart wallet.
  • Visibility: Strategy modal, Holdings treemap/table, and Transactions log make changes auditable.
  • Fee & slippage preview: See estimated gas, platform fee, max slippage, and minimum expected value before confirming.
  • Regime logic limits: Signals can be wrong; markets can gap; weekly rebalances can’t eliminate risk.
  • Region/chain notes: Supported chains surface in-product; availability and options may vary.

Crypto is volatile and can lose value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is for research/education, not financial advice.

Conclusion

If you’ve ever missed a rebalance or watched slippage eat into returns, Token Metrics Global 100 can help standardize the work: rules-based logic, weekly updates, and a visible log of everything that changed. Join the waitlist to be first to trade, and make a disciplined index your core.

→ Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.
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Timing crypto cycles is inherently challenging. Volatility in the crypto markets can lead to sharp swings—either capturing gains during bull runs or avoiding deep drawdowns during unfavorable trends. A regime switching crypto index offers a systematic way to adapt to changing market conditions, using rules-based allocations that switch between risk-on assets and stablecoins accordingly. Token Metrics offers tools to help analyze these strategies with transparency and real-time insights.

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Definition of Regime Switching in Crypto

Regime switching in crypto refers to a rules-based investment method that adjusts portfolio exposure based on prevailing market conditions. Typically, this involves rotating into a diversified basket of tokens in bullish phases and shifting into stablecoins during bearish trends, thus managing risk while seeking to ride upward trends.

Why Now: The Rationale for Regime Switching

  • Cycle Asymmetry: Capturing upward trends while limiting downside drawdowns can influence long-term outcomes positively.
  • Operational Efficiency: Automated, rules-based rebalancing reduces errors and slippage tied to manual adjustments across multiple tokens or exchanges.
  • Transparency: Real-time insight into holdings, rebalancing rationale, and transaction history fosters trust and clarity.

How the TM Global 100 Index Works (Plain English)

This index employs regime switching principles: during bullish periods, it holds the top 100 crypto assets by market cap; during bearish times, it exits into stablecoins and waits for buy signals. The index performs weekly rebalancing based on updated rankings, liquidity, and supply metrics. Transparency is maintained through clear strategy rules, gauges, Treemap views, and detailed transaction logs.

Benefits at a Glance (Why This Beats DIY)

  • Rules, not vibes: Automated logic minimizes emotional decision-making.
  • Fewer operational mistakes: Single, streamlined flows replace manual multi-step trades.
  • Discipline in switching: Full rotation into stablecoins at bearish signals reduces hesitation and second-guessing.
  • Cost visibility: Estimated gas, platform fees, and expected minimum value are shown upfront.
  • Full transparency: Holdings treemaps and transaction histories keep you informed.
  • Consistent cadence: Weekly updates ensure alignment with market trends.

Step-by-Step: How to Get Early Access (Waitlist)

  1. Visit the Token Metrics Indices hub.
  2. Find the TM Global 100 index card and tap “Join Waitlist”.
  3. Add your email to receive launch notifications.
  4. Optionally, connect your wallet in advance to streamline onboarding on launch day.
  5. On launch day, you will receive an email when the index opens for trading. The interface features gauges, strategy details, and holdings for instant review.
  6. Complete the purchase of the index in about 90 seconds by confirming your wallet, reviewing potential fees, and confirming the buy.
  7. Track your position within “My Indices” once active.

Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.

Decision Guide: Is This Right for You?

  • Hands-Off Allocator: Ideal for those seeking broad market exposure with minimal management.
  • Active Trader: Useful as a core strategy with rules-based rebalancing, supporting satellite bets.
  • Token Metrics Member/Prospect: For users who value transparent, research-backed rules over discretionary choices.
  • Crypto Newcomer: Simplifies entry with one-button buy, weekly updates, and clear rules.
  • Time-Constrained Pro: Reduces operational overhead while maintaining clarity and predictability.
  • Skeptical of Forecasts: Prefers systematic processes over relying on predictions or forecasts.

FAQs

What is a regime switching crypto index?

A rules-based portfolio that allocates to a diversified token basket during bullish phases and switches to stablecoins during bearish conditions, based on predefined signals. Token Metrics implements this with a top-100 universe and full stablecoin rotation in downturns.

How often does the index rebalance?

It rebalances weekly to reflect changes in rankings and liquidity. Significant regime changes can occur outside the schedule when market signals trigger a switch.

What triggers the move to stablecoins?

A proprietary market signal prompts the index to exit token positions and move into stablecoins during bearish phases, waiting for a bullish signal to re-enter.

Can I fund with USDC or fiat?

Funding occurs via an embedded, self-custodial wallet supporting major chains. USDC payouts are supported when selling. Funding options depend on your wallet and region.

Is the wallet custodial?

No. It is self-custodial, giving you control of keys and funds.

How are fees shown?

Before confirming a trade, estimated gas, platform fee, slippage, and expected minimum value are displayed.

How do I join the waitlist?

Visit the Token Metrics Indices hub, open TM Global 100, and tap “Join Waitlist”. You will be notified at launch.

Security, Risk & Transparency

  • Self-custody is prioritized: You control your keys and funds.
  • Transparency is built into the process: Fees, holdings, and transaction logs are visible before and after trades.
  • Market signals are based on rules; sudden gaps and spreads can impact outcomes.
  • Supported regions and asset options may vary due to geography.

Crypto markets are volatile and can fluctuate rapidly. Past performance does not predict future results. This article aims to educate and inform, not provide financial advice.

Conclusion

For a disciplined, transparent approach to broad crypto exposure that adapts to market regimes, the TM Global 100 index offers a rules-based platform with weekly rebalancing and full visibility. It enables investors to focus on allocation without the stress of micromanagement.

Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.

Research

Regime Switching in Crypto: Participate in Upside, Sit Out Drawdowns (2025)

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Timing crypto cycles is inherently challenging. Market volatility can work both ways: investors seek broad upside potential during bullish phases, yet require the discipline to step aside when market trends and liquidity conditions reverse. A regime switching crypto index precisely addresses this need—employing rules-based mechanisms to adjust market exposure during different conditions. Our flagship implementation, Token Metrics Global 100, exemplifies this approach: it dynamically shifts between a top-100 crypto basket during bullish periods and stablecoins during downturns, with weekly rebalancing, transparent holdings, and verifiable transactions. Designed for investors who prefer market exposure without the need to micromanage individual tokens or succumb to emotional biases, this system offers a disciplined approach to crypto participation.

Why Indices Matter in October 2025

Crypto markets tend to operate in distinct regimes—prolonged phases of risk-on momentum followed by swift drawdowns that can negate earlier gains. Those exploring "regime switching," "weekly rebalancing," or "crypto index" strategies seek frameworks that are straightforward, practical, and easy to implement.

Definition (for snippets):

Regime switching in crypto refers to a rules-based portfolio approach that adjusts exposure based on market conditions—rotating between a diversified assortment of tokens in uptrends and moving into stablecoins during declines.

Why now:

  • Cycle asymmetry: Capturing trending phases while minimizing drawdowns can significantly influence long-term performance.
  • Operational burden: Manual rebalancing across multiple tokens increases errors and delays; a standardized, rules-based process reduces these issues.
  • Clarity: Real-time transparency into holdings, rationale, and changes enhances confidence and ease of management.

How the Token Metrics Global 100 Index Works

Regime switching: During bullish periods, the index holds the top-100 cryptocurrencies by market cap across sectors and chains. In bearish conditions, it exits to stablecoins and waits for an upward signal to re-enter.

Weekly rebalancing: The index updates constituent weights based on market-cap rankings and liquidity metrics, adjusting on a set schedule.

Transparency: The index employs defined rules, with visual tools like gauges, treemaps, and logs that allow users to verify holdings and changes.

What you’ll see upon launch:

Price tile, list of 100 tokens, clear indication of weekly rebalancing, and a simplified buy flow supported by a self-custodial wallet. You can review the strategy and rules at a glance.

Benefits at a Glance (Why This Beats DIY)

  • Rules, not vibes: Automated regime logic minimizes emotional trading.
  • Fewer operational mistakes: Single, streamlined process replaces multiple manual trades across platforms.
  • Discipline in switching: Strict rotation into stablecoins during downturn signals eliminates second-guessing.
  • Visible slippage & fees: Estimated gas, platform fee, and minimum expected value are shown before trade confirmation.
  • Full visibility: Interactive holdings treemaps, transaction logs, and real-time data keep you informed.
  • Weekly updates: Regular rebalancing aligns the index with current market conditions.

Step-by-Step: How to Get Early Access (Waitlist)

  1. Open the Token Metrics Indices hub.
  2. Find the TM Global 100 index and tap "Join Waitlist."
  3. Enter your email to receive notifications at launch.
  4. (Optional) Connect your wallet to streamline the buy process on day one.
  5. On launch day, receive an email alert; you can review Gauge → Strategy → Holdings quickly.
  6. Confirm your wallet, review fees/slippage, and purchase the index, then track your position in "My Indices."

Discover crypto benefits with disciplined rebalancing—join the waitlist to be among the first to trade the TM Global 100.

Decision Guide: Is This Right for You?

  • Hands-Off Allocator: Prefer broad market exposure paired with rules-based discipline?
  • Active Trader: Use this index as a core, with room for satellite positions.
  • TM Member/Prospect: Value transparent, research-backed rules over discretionary guesswork.
  • Crypto Newcomer: Seek a simple, one-click approach with weekly updates.
  • Time-Strapped Professional: Minimize operational overhead and maximize clarity.
  • Skeptical of forecasts: Favor process, signals, and scheduled rebalancing over predictions.

FAQs

What is a regime switching crypto index?

A rules-based portfolio that adjusts exposure between a diversified token basket during bullish markets and stablecoins during bearish phases, based on predefined signals. The Token Metrics Global 100 implements this by focusing on the top-100 tokens with an integrated stablecoin switch in downturns.

How often does the index rebalance?

Rebalancing occurs weekly to reflect latest rankings and liquidity thresholds. However, regime shifts can happen outside the scheduled rebalancing when market signals change abruptly.

What triggers the move to stablecoins?

A proprietary market signal detects bearish conditions, prompting the index to exit crypto positions into stablecoins, awaiting a bullish re-entry signal.

Can I fund with USDC or fiat?

Funding occurs via an embedded self-custodial wallet supporting major chains; options depend on your wallet and region. USDC payouts are supported upon sale. Regional and asset availability may vary.

Is the wallet custodial?

No. The embedded wallet is self-custodial, giving you full control over your keys and funds.

How are fees shown?

Before confirming a trade, estimated gas costs, platform fees, and maximum slippage are displayed, along with the minimum expected value.

How do I join the waitlist?

Visit the Token Metrics Indices hub, open the TM Global 100, and tap "Join Waitlist." You will receive a notification at launch.

Security, Risk & Transparency

  • Self-custody first: You control your keys and funds through an embedded smart wallet.
  • Pre-trade transparency: Fees, slippage, and holdings are previewed before any transaction.
  • Logs and records: Strategy, holdings, and transaction histories are visible on the platform.
  • Regime logic limitations: Signals can be wrong; market gaps and spreads may impact outcomes.
  • Regional considerations: Availability and supported chains vary geographically.

Crypto markets are volatile and can experience value declines. Past performance does not predict future results. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only.

Conclusion

If you seek a disciplined, transparent method to participate in the crypto market while avoiding emotional pitfalls during downturns, the TM Global 100 offers a rules-based, weekly rebalanced solution. With comprehensive visibility into holdings and transactions, it enables a focused approach to market exposure without added anxiety.

Join the waitlist to be among the first to trade the TM Global 100.

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