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How Do I Calculate Capital Gains on Crypto: Complete 2025 Tax Guide

Learn how to accurately calculate crypto capital gains, understand tax implications, and leverage Token Metrics for effective crypto tax management in 2025.
Token Metrics Team
9 min read
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As cryptocurrency becomes increasingly mainstream, knowing how do I calculate capital gains on crypto is essential for every investor. The IRS treats cryptocurrency as property rather than currency, meaning each trade, sale, or purchase of crypto triggers a taxable event that must be carefully documented. This means that cryptocurrency is taxed similarly to other forms of property, with gains and losses reported for each transaction. This article serves as a comprehensive crypto tax guide, helping you understand how to accurately calculate your crypto capital gains so you can manage your tax bill effectively and avoid costly compliance issues.

Understanding Crypto Capital Gains Basics

Capital gains on cryptocurrency arise when you sell, trade, or spend your crypto for more than you originally paid. At its core, the calculation is straightforward: your proceeds (sale price) minus your cost basis (purchase price) equals your capital gain or loss. These gains are subject to crypto capital gains tax. However, the reality is far more complex, especially for active traders who manage multiple positions across various exchanges and wallets.

The IRS distinguishes between short-term capital gains and long-term capital gains based on how long you hold your crypto assets. If you hold your cryptocurrency for one year or less, any gains are considered short-term and taxed at your ordinary income tax rates, which range from 10% to 37% depending on your total taxable income. Conversely, assets held for more than one year qualify for preferential long-term capital gains tax rates of 0%, 15%, or 20%, based on your income and filing status. How crypto is taxed depends on the holding period and whether the gain is classified as short-term or long-term, so understanding how crypto taxed applies to your transactions is essential. This distinction can create significant tax planning opportunities for investors who strategically time their sales.

The Capital Gains Calculation Formula

To calculate crypto capital gains accurately, you need three critical pieces of information for each transaction: your cost basis, your proceeds, and your holding period. Your cost basis is the original purchase price of your crypto, including any transaction fees directly related to the purchase. Proceeds are the amount you receive when you dispose of the crypto, minus any fees related to the sale. The difference between your proceeds and cost basis is your taxable gain, which is the amount subject to capital gains tax.

For example, imagine you bought 1 Bitcoin in June 2024 for $70,000 and sold it four months later for $80,000. Your capital gain is $80,000 minus $70,000, or $10,000. This $10,000 is your taxable gain and must be reported for bitcoin taxes. Since you held the Bitcoin for less than a year, this gain is short-term and taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. If your annual income is $85,000, your total taxable income becomes $95,000, placing you in the 24% federal tax bracket for 2024. This means you owe approximately $2,400 in federal taxes on that gain.

If you instead held the Bitcoin for 13 months before selling, the $10,000 gain qualifies for long-term capital gains treatment. With the same income, your tax rate on the gain would be 15%, resulting in a $1,500 tax bill—a $900 savings just by holding the asset longer.

Why Crypto Tax Calculations Get Complicated

While the basic formula seems simple, real-world crypto investing introduces many complexities. Take Sarah, an investor who bought Bitcoin at various prices: $5,000, $10,000, $15,000, and $20,000. When she sells part of her holdings, which purchase price should she use to calculate her cost basis?

This question highlights the importance of selecting a cost basis method. The IRS permits several approaches: FIFO (First In, First Out) uses the oldest purchase price; LIFO (Last In, First Out) uses the most recent purchase price; and HIFO (Highest In, First Out) uses the highest purchase price to minimize gains. These are all different cost basis methods, and the accounting method you choose can significantly affect your tax liability.

Complications also arise from trading on multiple exchanges and moving crypto between different wallets. Most investors don’t stick to one platform—they might buy on Coinbase, trade on Binance, stake on other platforms, and transfer assets between wallets. Each platform maintains separate transaction records, and consolidating these into a complete transaction history is like assembling a complex puzzle. Tracking your crypto cost basis for each asset is crucial, especially when dealing with multiple transactions across different platforms.

Taxable Events Beyond Simple Sales

Calculating capital gains on crypto involves more than just selling for fiat currency. Several other actions involving digital assets are considered taxable events from a tax perspective, each representing a type of crypto transaction:

  • Trading one cryptocurrency for another (e.g., swapping Bitcoin for Ethereum) is a crypto trade and triggers capital gains taxes, requiring you to calculate gains on the disposed digital asset.
  • Selling crypto for fiat currency is a crypto transaction that counts as a disposal event. For tax purposes, you must calculate the difference between your cost basis and the fair market value of the digital asset at the time of the transaction.
  • Spending crypto on goods or services is another form of crypto transaction and counts as a disposal. You must calculate the difference between your cost basis and the fair market value at the time of the transaction.
  • Receiving cryptocurrency as crypto income—from mining rewards, staking, airdrops, or employment compensation—creates ordinary income taxable at your income tax rate. The fair market value at receipt establishes your cost basis for future capital gains calculations.

You owe capital gains tax whenever you dispose of or convert digital assets through these types of crypto transactions. The tax treatment of each event depends on the nature of the transaction, and the IRS provides specific guidance on how to report and classify these activities.

Not all crypto activities generate taxable events. Simply buying and holding digital assets doesn’t trigger a tax bill until you dispose of them. Transferring crypto between your own wallets is also non-taxable, though keeping detailed records of these crypto transactions is vital to track your cost basis accurately. Additionally, gifting crypto under the annual gift tax exclusion (set at $19,000 per recipient for 2025) doesn’t create taxable gains for the giver, but the recipient inherits the giver's cost basis (the original purchase price and acquisition date) for tax purposes. Proper documentation of the giver's cost basis is important for future tax reporting. The tax treatment of gifts and other crypto transactions should always be considered from a tax perspective to ensure compliance.

Crypto Income and Tax Implications

Crypto income encompasses a range of earnings from activities like mining, staking, airdrops, and earning interest through crypto lending platforms. For tax purposes, the IRS treats all these forms of crypto income as ordinary income, meaning they are taxed at your regular income tax rates based on your total taxable income. The key factor in determining your tax bill is the fair market value of the crypto assets at the time you receive them. For example, if you receive $1,000 worth of Bitcoin as a mining reward, you must report that $1,000 as taxable income on your tax return for the year.

Accurate reporting of crypto income starts with maintaining a complete transaction history. You should record the date, time, amount, and fair market value of each crypto asset received. This information is essential for calculating your tax liability and ensuring your tax return is accurate. Using tax software or a crypto tax calculator can greatly simplify this process by automatically importing your transaction data from exchanges and wallets, calculating your gains and losses, and generating a comprehensive tax report.

Beyond mining and staking rewards, other types of crypto income—such as interest from lending platforms or profits from trading—are also subject to crypto tax. Each of these activities can have unique tax implications, so it’s wise to consult a tax professional or use specialized tax software to ensure you’re following IRS rules and reporting all taxable income correctly. By understanding how crypto income is taxed and taking steps to accurately calculate and report it, you can avoid unexpected tax bills and minimize your overall tax liability.

Leveraging Token Metrics for Accurate Tracking

Given the complexities of calculating crypto capital gains across multiple exchanges, wallets, and hundreds of transactions, having robust tracking tools is essential. This is where Token Metrics, a leading crypto trading and analytics platform, comes into play.

Token Metrics provides comprehensive portfolio tracking by aggregating your positions across exchanges and wallets, giving you real-time visibility into your entire crypto portfolio. This unified view simplifies the daunting task of compiling transaction records from disparate sources—a critical first step in accurate tax calculation. Organizing your transactions by tax year is essential for proper reporting and ensures you meet IRS deadlines for each tax year.

Beyond tracking, Token Metrics offers advanced analytics that empower investors to make tax-efficient trading decisions year-round, rather than scrambling during tax season. By understanding your current cost basis, holding periods, and potential tax implications before executing trades, you can optimize timing to minimize your tax liability. The platform’s insights help you plan around the one-year holding period that distinguishes short-term from long-term capital gains rates.

For active traders with complex portfolios, Token Metrics provides detailed performance attribution and reconstructs your cost basis accurately. Its reporting features generate comprehensive documentation to support your tax calculations, which is crucial for IRS compliance and audit defense. Token Metrics helps users report crypto transactions accurately and assists in reporting crypto gains for tax compliance, making it easier to meet regulatory requirements.

Token Metrics also aids in identifying opportunities for tax-loss harvesting, a strategy where you sell depreciated assets to realize losses that offset capital gains. By clearly showing which positions are underwater and by how much, the platform enables strategic loss realization that reduces your overall tax bill while maintaining your desired market exposure. Tools like Token Metrics are invaluable for managing cryptocurrency taxes and streamlining the entire tax preparation process.

Resolving Missing Cost Basis

Missing cost basis is a common challenge for crypto investors, especially those who have been active in the market for several years or have moved assets between multiple wallets and exchanges. The cost basis is the original purchase price of your crypto asset, including any transaction fees. Without this information, it becomes difficult to accurately calculate your capital gains or losses when you sell, trade, or otherwise dispose of your crypto.

To resolve missing cost basis, start by gathering as much information as possible about the original transaction. Check your exchange records, wallet transaction histories, and any other documentation that might indicate the purchase price, date, and amount of the crypto asset. If you’re unable to locate the original purchase price, some tax software can help estimate your cost basis based on available transaction records. However, using an estimated cost basis can be risky, as the IRS may scrutinize these calculations during an audit.

Maintaining accurate and complete transaction records is the best way to avoid missing cost basis issues in the future. Tax software like Token Metrics can help you track and calculate cost basis for each crypto asset, generate a detailed tax report, and ensure you’re prepared for tax season. If you’re unsure about how to calculate cost basis or need to estimate it due to missing information, consulting a tax professional is highly recommended. By resolving missing cost basis issues and keeping thorough records, you can accurately calculate your capital gains, comply with IRS rules, and minimize your tax liability.

Tax-Loss Harvesting and Strategic Planning

There are a few strategies you can use to reduce your tax bill when dealing with cryptocurrency. These include tax-loss harvesting, holding assets for long-term gains, and careful planning of your transactions.

Capital losses can be a powerful tool for managing your tax bill. You can use capital losses to offset capital gains dollar-for-dollar, lowering your taxable income. If your losses exceed your gains, you can deduct up to $3,000 of net capital loss against ordinary income each year, with remaining losses carrying forward to future tax years.

Savvy investors practice tax-loss harvesting throughout the year, especially during market downturns. This approach is similar to strategies used for traditional investments like stocks. By selling depreciated positions to realize losses, they generate tax deductions and may repurchase similar assets to maintain exposure. It’s important to note that the IRS wash sale rule, which disallows losses on securities repurchased within 30 days, currently does not apply to cryptocurrency, though proposed regulations could change this.

You are required to pay taxes on gains from crypto activities, including trading, selling, or spending your crypto. Holding crypto for over a year before selling can substantially reduce your tax liability. The difference between ordinary income tax rates (up to 37%) and long-term capital gains rates (max 20%) can save tens of thousands of dollars on large gains. Patient investors who plan their sales strategically can significantly lower their tax liability.

If you mine cryptocurrency or operate as a self-employed individual, you may also be subject to self employment tax, which includes social security contributions, in addition to income and capital gains taxes.

Record Keeping and Reporting Requirements

Starting in 2025, cryptocurrency exchanges are required to report your transactions and wallet addresses directly to the IRS, making meticulous record keeping for all your digital assets more important than ever. You must maintain detailed documentation including transaction dates, amounts, fair market values at transaction time, involved parties, and the purpose of each transaction.

For tax reporting, you’ll use IRS Form 8949 to report your capital gains and losses, transferring totals to Schedule D. Income from mining, staking, or business activities, such as operating a crypto mining business, is reported on Schedule 1 or Schedule C. Due to the complexity of these forms, many investors rely on tax preparation software or consult a tax professional to ensure accuracy.

Platforms like Token Metrics simplify this process by maintaining a complete transaction history and providing organized reports ready for tax filing. Instead of manually reconstructing hundreds or thousands of transactions from multiple exchanges and wallets, you get centralized, accurate records that streamline your tax return preparation.

State Taxes and Additional Considerations

Federal taxes are only part of your overall tax obligation. Depending on your state of residence, you may owe additional state taxes on your crypto gains. States such as California, New York, and New Jersey impose significant taxes on investment income, while others like Texas, Florida, and Nevada have no state income tax. Your total tax liability is the sum of your federal and state obligations, so it’s important to understand your local tax rules.

Conclusion

Learning how do I calculate capital gains on crypto is crucial to managing your cryptocurrency investments responsibly and minimizing your tax burden. Calculating capital gains requires understanding IRS rules, maintaining detailed records, selecting appropriate accounting methods, and planning around holding periods and loss harvesting.

The complexity of cryptocurrency taxation, especially for active traders, makes reliable analytics and reporting tools indispensable. Token Metrics offers the comprehensive tracking, analysis, and reporting capabilities you need to navigate crypto taxes confidently. Its real-time portfolio visibility, accurate cost basis calculations, and tax-efficient trading insights transform the daunting task of crypto tax compliance into a manageable process.

As IRS enforcement intensifies and cryptocurrency tax regulations evolve, having sophisticated tools and accurate data becomes more valuable than ever. Whether you’re a casual investor with a few transactions or an active trader managing complex portfolios, understanding how to calculate capital gains correctly—and leveraging platforms like Token Metrics—protects you from costly errors while optimizing your tax position.00d

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About Token Metrics
Token Metrics: AI-powered crypto research and ratings platform. We help investors make smarter decisions with unbiased Token Metrics Ratings, on-chain analytics, and editor-curated “Top 10” guides. Our platform distills thousands of data points into clear scores, trends, and alerts you can act on.
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Recent Posts

Research

Regime Switching in Crypto: Participate in Upside, Sit Out Drawdowns (2025)

Token Metrics Team
5

Timing crypto cycles is inherently challenging. Market volatility can work both ways: investors seek broad upside potential during bullish phases, yet require the discipline to step aside when market trends and liquidity conditions reverse. A regime switching crypto index precisely addresses this need—employing rules-based mechanisms to adjust market exposure during different conditions. Our flagship implementation, Token Metrics Global 100, exemplifies this approach: it dynamically shifts between a top-100 crypto basket during bullish periods and stablecoins during downturns, with weekly rebalancing, transparent holdings, and verifiable transactions. Designed for investors who prefer market exposure without the need to micromanage individual tokens or succumb to emotional biases, this system offers a disciplined approach to crypto participation.

Why Indices Matter in October 2025

Crypto markets tend to operate in distinct regimes—prolonged phases of risk-on momentum followed by swift drawdowns that can negate earlier gains. Those exploring "regime switching," "weekly rebalancing," or "crypto index" strategies seek frameworks that are straightforward, practical, and easy to implement.

Definition (for snippets):

Regime switching in crypto refers to a rules-based portfolio approach that adjusts exposure based on market conditions—rotating between a diversified assortment of tokens in uptrends and moving into stablecoins during declines.

Why now:

  • Cycle asymmetry: Capturing trending phases while minimizing drawdowns can significantly influence long-term performance.
  • Operational burden: Manual rebalancing across multiple tokens increases errors and delays; a standardized, rules-based process reduces these issues.
  • Clarity: Real-time transparency into holdings, rationale, and changes enhances confidence and ease of management.

How the Token Metrics Global 100 Index Works

Regime switching: During bullish periods, the index holds the top-100 cryptocurrencies by market cap across sectors and chains. In bearish conditions, it exits to stablecoins and waits for an upward signal to re-enter.

Weekly rebalancing: The index updates constituent weights based on market-cap rankings and liquidity metrics, adjusting on a set schedule.

Transparency: The index employs defined rules, with visual tools like gauges, treemaps, and logs that allow users to verify holdings and changes.

What you’ll see upon launch:

Price tile, list of 100 tokens, clear indication of weekly rebalancing, and a simplified buy flow supported by a self-custodial wallet. You can review the strategy and rules at a glance.

Benefits at a Glance (Why This Beats DIY)

  • Rules, not vibes: Automated regime logic minimizes emotional trading.
  • Fewer operational mistakes: Single, streamlined process replaces multiple manual trades across platforms.
  • Discipline in switching: Strict rotation into stablecoins during downturn signals eliminates second-guessing.
  • Visible slippage & fees: Estimated gas, platform fee, and minimum expected value are shown before trade confirmation.
  • Full visibility: Interactive holdings treemaps, transaction logs, and real-time data keep you informed.
  • Weekly updates: Regular rebalancing aligns the index with current market conditions.

Step-by-Step: How to Get Early Access (Waitlist)

  1. Open the Token Metrics Indices hub.
  2. Find the TM Global 100 index and tap "Join Waitlist."
  3. Enter your email to receive notifications at launch.
  4. (Optional) Connect your wallet to streamline the buy process on day one.
  5. On launch day, receive an email alert; you can review Gauge → Strategy → Holdings quickly.
  6. Confirm your wallet, review fees/slippage, and purchase the index, then track your position in "My Indices."

Discover crypto benefits with disciplined rebalancing—join the waitlist to be among the first to trade the TM Global 100.

Decision Guide: Is This Right for You?

  • Hands-Off Allocator: Prefer broad market exposure paired with rules-based discipline?
  • Active Trader: Use this index as a core, with room for satellite positions.
  • TM Member/Prospect: Value transparent, research-backed rules over discretionary guesswork.
  • Crypto Newcomer: Seek a simple, one-click approach with weekly updates.
  • Time-Strapped Professional: Minimize operational overhead and maximize clarity.
  • Skeptical of forecasts: Favor process, signals, and scheduled rebalancing over predictions.

FAQs

What is a regime switching crypto index?

A rules-based portfolio that adjusts exposure between a diversified token basket during bullish markets and stablecoins during bearish phases, based on predefined signals. The Token Metrics Global 100 implements this by focusing on the top-100 tokens with an integrated stablecoin switch in downturns.

How often does the index rebalance?

Rebalancing occurs weekly to reflect latest rankings and liquidity thresholds. However, regime shifts can happen outside the scheduled rebalancing when market signals change abruptly.

What triggers the move to stablecoins?

A proprietary market signal detects bearish conditions, prompting the index to exit crypto positions into stablecoins, awaiting a bullish re-entry signal.

Can I fund with USDC or fiat?

Funding occurs via an embedded self-custodial wallet supporting major chains; options depend on your wallet and region. USDC payouts are supported upon sale. Regional and asset availability may vary.

Is the wallet custodial?

No. The embedded wallet is self-custodial, giving you full control over your keys and funds.

How are fees shown?

Before confirming a trade, estimated gas costs, platform fees, and maximum slippage are displayed, along with the minimum expected value.

How do I join the waitlist?

Visit the Token Metrics Indices hub, open the TM Global 100, and tap "Join Waitlist." You will receive a notification at launch.

Security, Risk & Transparency

  • Self-custody first: You control your keys and funds through an embedded smart wallet.
  • Pre-trade transparency: Fees, slippage, and holdings are previewed before any transaction.
  • Logs and records: Strategy, holdings, and transaction histories are visible on the platform.
  • Regime logic limitations: Signals can be wrong; market gaps and spreads may impact outcomes.
  • Regional considerations: Availability and supported chains vary geographically.

Crypto markets are volatile and can experience value declines. Past performance does not predict future results. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only.

Conclusion

If you seek a disciplined, transparent method to participate in the crypto market while avoiding emotional pitfalls during downturns, the TM Global 100 offers a rules-based, weekly rebalanced solution. With comprehensive visibility into holdings and transactions, it enables a focused approach to market exposure without added anxiety.

Join the waitlist to be among the first to trade the TM Global 100.

Research

Top Crypto Prediction Markets: The Complete 2025 Guide to Trading the Future

Token Metrics Team
9

The prediction revolution is transforming crypto investing in 2025. From AI-powered price prediction platforms to blockchain-based event markets, today's tools help investors forecast everything from token prices to election outcomes with unprecedented accuracy.

With billions in trading volume and cutting-edge AI analytics, these platforms are reshaping how we predict, trade, and profit from future events. Whether you're forecasting the next 100x altcoin or betting on real-world outcomes, this comprehensive guide explores the top prediction tools dominating 2025.

Understanding Crypto Prediction Tools vs. Prediction Markets

Before diving in, it's crucial to distinguish between two types of prediction platforms:

  • Crypto Price Prediction Platforms (like Token Metrics) use AI and data analytics to forecast cryptocurrency price movements, identify promising tokens, and generate trading signals.
  • Event Prediction Markets (like Polymarket and Kalshi) are blockchain-powered platforms where users trade on real-world event outcomes—elections, sports, economic indicators, and yes, even crypto prices.

Both serve valuable but different purposes. Let's explore the top tools in each category.

The #1 Crypto Price Prediction Platform

Token Metrics - AI-Powered Crypto Intelligence Leader

Token Metrics stands as the premier AI-driven crypto research and investment platform, scanning over 6,000 tokens daily to provide data-backed predictions and actionable insights. With a user base of 110,000+ crypto traders and $8.5 million raised from 3,000+ investors, Token Metrics has established itself as the industry's most comprehensive prediction tool.

What Makes Token Metrics the Top Price Prediction Tool:

  • AI-Driven Analytics Engine: Token Metrics' AI and machine learning algorithms identify potential trends and predict future price movements by analyzing fundamental reports, code quality, sentiment analysis, moving averages, and support/resistance levels. The platform processes massive datasets 24/7 to spot opportunities before they go mainstream.
  • Comprehensive Scoring System: Every token receives both a Trader Grade (for short-term momentum) and Investor Grade (for long-term fundamentals) based on technical analysis, on-chain data, fundamental metrics, sentiment and social data, and exchange data.
  • Moonshot Discovery: The Moonshots feature uses AI to highlight daily tokens with 10x–100x potential before they hit major exchanges, giving investors early access to high-upside opportunities.
  • Real-Time Signals & Alerts: Get instant bullish and bearish alerts for major tokens, with custom notifications via email, Telegram, or Slack. Never miss a sudden market move or grade change.
  • Multi-Strategy Support: Whether you're HODLing long-term, swing trading, narrative investing, or hunting moonshots, Token Metrics provides tailored tools and indices for every strategy.
  • Deep Token Analytics: Access detailed insights including historical performance, wallet holder analysis, exchange listings, code quality assessments, and market sentiment tracking.

Why Token Metrics Ranks #1:

Unlike basic charting tools or single-metric analyzers, Token Metrics combines time series data, media news, regulator activities, coin events like forks, and traded volumes across exchanges to optimize forecasting results. The platform's proven track record and comprehensive approach make it indispensable for serious crypto investors in 2025.

Best For:

Investors and traders seeking AI-powered crypto price predictions, portfolio optimization, and early altcoin discovery.

Top Crypto Event Prediction Markets

1. Polymarket - The Largest Decentralized Prediction Market

Polymarket dominates the event prediction market space with unmatched liquidity and diverse betting opportunities.

  • Over $18.4 billion in trading volume, establishing market leadership
  • Built on Polygon for low fees and fast transactions
  • Trades in USDC stablecoin for price stability
  • Around 40% of sales volume from sports betting, 40% from crypto movement predictions
  • Open interest recently rose to around $170 million
  • No trading fees on transactions

What Sets It Apart: Polymarket proved its forecasting superiority when it accurately predicted election outcomes that traditional polls missed. The platform's user-friendly interface makes blockchain prediction markets accessible to mainstream audiences.

Best For: Event outcome betting, political predictions, sports betting, and crypto price speculation through binary markets.

2. Kalshi - The CFTC-Regulated Powerhouse

Kalshi has surged from 3.3% market share last year to 66% by September 2025, overtaking Polymarket as the trading volume leader.

  • First CFTC-regulated prediction market in the United States
  • Monthly trading volume hit approximately $1.3 billion in September 2025
  • Accepts crypto deposits (USDC, Bitcoin, Solana, Worldcoin) via ZeroHash
  • All markets settled in U.S. dollars
  • Fees up to 5% of profit, capped at $0.85 per contract

Recent Developments: Kalshi hired John Wang as Head of Crypto in August 2025 to drive blockchain integration, with plans to be on "every major crypto app and exchange within 12 months." The platform secured a massive $185 million Series C funding round and partnered with Robinhood for sports market expansion.

Best For: U.S. residents seeking regulated prediction markets with crypto deposit options and diverse event contracts.

3. Drift BET - Solana's Speed Champion

For traders demanding instant settlement and minimal fees, Drift BET represents the cutting edge of prediction markets on Solana.

  • Native Solana integration for near-instant finality
  • Multi-collateral support
  • Extremely low transaction costs
  • Growing ecosystem momentum

Why It Matters: By leveraging Solana's near-instant transaction finality, BET by Drift solves many scalability issues faced by Ethereum-based prediction markets, with low transaction fees making smaller bets feasible for wider audiences.

Best For: Solana-native traders and users prioritizing speed and low costs.

4. Augur - The Pioneering Protocol

Launched in 2018, Augur was the first decentralized prediction market, pioneering blockchain-based forecasting and innovative methods for settlement secured by the REP token.

  • Fully decentralized platform
  • REP token for market creation, rewards, and disputes
  • Augur Turbo version on Polygon for improved efficiency
  • Binary, categorical, and scalar market support

Legacy Impact: Augur v1 settled around $20 million in bets—impressive for 2018-19. While the DAO has dissolved, Augur's technological innovations now permeate the DeFi sphere.

Best For: Crypto purists seeking complete decentralization and censorship resistance.

5. Gnosis - The Infrastructure Powerhouse

With a market cap of $463 million, Gnosis is the biggest prediction market project by market capitalization.

  • Conditional Token Framework for tokenizing outcomes
  • GNO token for governance and staking
  • Gnosis Chain Layer 2 solution
  • Powers platforms like Omen and Azuro

Ecosystem Approach: Founded in 2015, Gnosis evolved into a multifaceted ecosystem encompassing decentralized trading, wallet services, and infrastructure tools beyond mere prediction markets.

Best For: Developers and platforms building custom prediction market applications.

Emerging Platforms

  • Robinhood Prediction Markets: Facilitated over 4 billion event contracts, including 2 billion in Q3 2025 alone. Seamlessly integrated into the Robinhood app, with a $0.01 commission + $0.01 exchange fee structure.
  • Myriad: Built on Abstract with promising points program, focusing on user rewards and engagement.
  • Crypto.com Prediction Trading: CFTC-regulated through Crypto.com Derivatives North America (CDNA), integrated with existing crypto exchange infrastructure.

How These Platforms Work Together

Smart investors often use Token Metrics for identifying which cryptocurrencies to invest in, then leverage prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi to hedge positions or speculate on specific price targets and events.

Example Strategy:

  1. Use Token Metrics to identify a token with strong Trader Grade and bullish AI signals
  2. Build a position in that token through AI trading for crypto or indices of your choice
  3. Use Token Metrics to bet on specific price milestones or related events
  4. Monitor Token Metrics alerts for exit signals

This combines the best of AI-driven price prediction with market-based event forecasting.

Why Prediction Platforms Are Exploding in 2025

Market Growth Trajectory: The prediction market sector is projected to reach $95.5 billion by 2035, with underlying derivatives integrating with DeFi protocols.

Key Growth Drivers:

  • AI & Machine Learning Advancement: Platforms like Token Metrics leverage increasingly sophisticated AI to process millions of data points, delivering predictions that outperform human analysts.
  • Regulatory Clarity: The 2024 U.S. election betting legalization and crypto-friendly policies under the Trump administration have opened floodgates for mainstream adoption.
  • Proven Accuracy: Prediction markets demonstrated superior forecasting during recent elections, while AI platforms like Token Metrics consistently identify moonshot tokens before mainstream discovery.
  • Institutional Interest: Kalshi attracted $1.4 billion in institutional capital in Q2 2025, signaling Wall Street's growing confidence in prediction infrastructure.
  • Sports Betting Expansion: Sports betting now drives significant volume, expanding prediction markets beyond politics and finance into entertainment.

Real-World Applications

For Crypto Investors: Use Token Metrics to identify high-potential tokens before they pump. Access AI-generated buy/sell signals for portfolio management. Discover narrative-driven investment opportunities early.

For Event Traders: Hedge crypto positions using prediction markets. Speculate on regulatory outcomes, exchange listings, or network upgrades. Trade sports and political events for diversified income.

For Analysts & Institutions: Aggregate market sentiment data for research. Access real-time forecasting for economic indicators. Build custom trading strategies using API integrations.

Risks and Considerations

For Price Prediction Platforms: No prediction tool is 100% accurate; past performance doesn't guarantee future results. AI models perform best with sufficient historical data. Market manipulation and black swan events can invalidate predictions.

For Prediction Markets: Regulatory uncertainty remains in many jurisdictions. Liquidity challenges can create volatility. Oracle failures could compromise settlement integrity. Tax implications require careful record-keeping.

The Future: AI + Blockchain Convergence

What's Coming: Expect deeper AI agent integration, automated portfolio management, and enhanced moonshot discovery as machine learning models become more sophisticated.

Prediction Market Expansion: Kalshi aims to integrate with every major crypto app within 12 months, while tokenization of positions and margin trading will create new financial primitives.

Cross-Platform Integration: Future platforms will likely combine Token Metrics-style AI prediction with Polymarket-style event markets in unified interfaces.

DeFi Integration: The prediction market derivatives layer is set to integrate with DeFi protocols to create more complex financial products.

Getting Started: Platform Recommendations

  • For Price Prediction & Portfolio Management:Token Metrics - Unmatched AI analytics, moonshot discovery, and comprehensive scoring
  • For U.S. Residents (Event Betting): → Kalshi - Regulatory compliance, crypto deposits, diverse contracts
  • → Robinhood - Simplest onboarding through existing app
  • For Maximum Liquidity (Event Betting): → Polymarket - Largest markets, best pricing, widest selection
  • For Speed & Low Fees: → Drift BET - Solana-powered efficiency
  • For Developers: → Gnosis - Infrastructure tools and frameworks
  • For Maximum Decentralization: → Augur - Censorship-resistant, community-governed

Conclusion: Predicting the Future Is Now Data-Driven

The era of blind speculation is over. Between AI-powered platforms like Token Metrics analyzing thousands of data points per second and blockchain-based prediction markets aggregating collective wisdom, today's investors have unprecedented tools for forecasting the future.

Token Metrics leads the charge in crypto price prediction with its comprehensive AI-driven approach, while platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi dominate event-based forecasting. Together, they represent a new paradigm where data, algorithms, and collective intelligence converge to illuminate tomorrow's opportunities.

Whether you're hunting the next 100x altcoin or betting on real-world events, 2025's prediction platforms put the power of foresight in your hands. The question isn't whether to use these tools—it's how quickly you can integrate them into your strategy.

The future is visible. Are you ready to profit from it?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investing involves risk, including potential loss of capital. Price predictions and ratings are provided for informational purposes and may not reflect actual future performance. Always conduct thorough research and consult qualified professionals before making financial decisions.

Research

What Is a Crypto Index? Why Weekly Rebalancing Matters (2025)

Token Metrics Team
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Understanding how to efficiently manage exposure in the dynamic world of cryptocurrency can seem daunting. Crypto indices provide a structured approach, helping investors and traders maintain diversified exposure without constant oversight. This article explores what crypto indices are, how they work, and why their rebalancing strategies are crucial in 2025.

What Is a Crypto Index?

A crypto index is a rules-based basket of digital assets that tracks a specific set of cryptocurrencies, such as the top-100 by market capitalization. These indices are designed to reflect broad market trends while reducing the complexity of individual asset management. They typically rebalance periodically to maintain consistent exposure, adapting to market fluctuations over time.

How Crypto Indices Work

The core mechanism involves a few key processes:

Benefits of Using Crypto Indices

Crypto indices offer several advantages:

How to Get Early Access to a Crypto Index

Investors interested in accessing crypto indices can follow a straightforward process:

Decision Guide: Is This for You?

Crypto indices may suit different kinds of investors:

Understanding your trading style and risk appetite can help determine if a crypto index fits within your broader strategy.

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FAQs

What is a crypto index?

A crypto index is a rules-based basket that tracks a defined set of assets (e.g., the top-100 by market cap), with a scheduled rebalance to keep exposure aligned. Token Metrics applies that idea and adds a regime switch to stablecoins.

How often does TM Global 100 rebalance?

Weekly. Constituents and weights update on schedule; if the market regime changes, the portfolio can switch between tokens and stablecoins outside that cadence.

What triggers the move to stablecoins?

A proprietary market signal. Bullish: hold the top-100 basket. Bearish: exit to stablecoins and wait for a re-entry signal.

Can I fund with USDC or fiat?

At launch, funding options including wallet-funding supported by the embedded smart wallet and supported chains; USDC payouts are available when selling. Details are available during the buy/sell process.

Is the wallet custodial?

No. The embedded wallet is self-custodial—you control your funds and keys.

How are fees shown?

Before confirming, you'll see estimated gas costs, platform fees, max slippage, and minimum expected value.

How do I join the waitlist?

Visit the Token Metrics indices hub, open TM Global 100, and tap “Join Waitlist.” We will notify you once trading opens.

Security, Risk & Transparency

Self-custody: Embedded smart wallet with user-controlled keys. Transparency: Clear rules, holdings Treemap, and transactions logs. Fees: Shown before confirmation. Limitations: Signals can be wrong, no performance guarantees. Availability may vary by region and device.

Disclaimer

Crypto is volatile and can lose value. Past performance does not predict future results. This article is for research and educational purposes only, not financial advice.

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