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Backtesting Token Metrics AI: Can AI Grades Really Predict Altcoin Breakouts?

To test the accuracy of Token Metrics' proprietary AI signals, we conducted a detailed six-month backtest across three different tokens — Fartcoin, Bittensor ($TAO), and Ethereum. Each represents a unique narrative: memecoins, AI infrastructure, and blue-chip Layer 1s. Our goal?
Token Metrics Team
5 min
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To test the accuracy of Token Metrics' proprietary AI signals, we conducted a detailed six-month backtest across three different tokens — Fartcoin, Bittensor ($TAO), and Ethereum. Each represents a unique narrative: memecoins, AI infrastructure, and blue-chip Layer 1s. Our goal? To evaluate how well the AI’s bullish and bearish signals timed market trends and price action.

Fartcoin:

The green and red dots on the following Fartcoin price chart represent the bullish and bearish market signals, respectively. Since Nov 26, 2024, Token Metrics AI has given 4 trading signals for Fartcoin. Let’s analyze each signal separately.

The Fartcoin chart above displays green and red dots that mark bullish and bearish signals from the Token Metrics AI, respectively. Over the last six months — starting November 26, 2024 — our system produced four significant trade signals for Fartcoin. Let’s evaluate them one by one.

The first major signal was bullish on November 26, 2024, when Fartcoin was trading at $0.29. This signal preceded a massive run-up, with the price topping out at $2.49. That’s an astounding 758% gain — all captured within just under two months. It’s one of the most powerful validations of the AI model’s ability to anticipate momentum early.

Following that rally, a bearish signal was triggered on January 26, 2025, just before the market corrected. Fartcoin retraced sharply, plunging 74.76% from the highs. Traders who acted on this bearish alert could have avoided substantial drawdowns — or even profited through short-side exposure.

On March 25, 2025, the AI turned bullish again, as Fartcoin traded near $0.53. Over the next several weeks, the token surged to $1.58, a 198% rally. Again, the AI proved its ability to detect upward momentum early.

Most recently, on June 1, 2025, Token Metrics AI flipped bearish once again. The current Trader Grade of 24.34 reinforces this view. For now, the system warns of weakness in the memecoin market — a trend that appears to be playing out in real-time.

Across all four trades, the AI captured both the explosive upside and protected traders from steep corrections — a rare feat in the volatile world of meme tokens.

Bittensor

Next, we examine Bittensor, the native asset of the decentralized AI Layer 1 network. Over the last six months, Token Metrics AI produced five key signals — and the results were a mixed bag but still largely insightful.

In December 2024, the AI turned bearish around $510, which preceded a sharp decline to $314 by February — a 38.4% drawdown. This alert helped traders sidestep a brutal correction during a high-volatility period.

On February 21, 2025, the system flipped bullish, but this trade didn't play out as expected. The price dropped 25.4% after the signal. Interestingly, the AI reversed again with a bearish signal just five days later, showing how fast sentiment and momentum can shift in emerging narratives like AI tokens.

The third signal marked a solid win: Bittensor dropped from $327 to $182.9 following the bearish call — another 44% drop captured in advance.

In April 2025, momentum returned. The AI issued a bullish alert on April 19, with TAO at $281. By the end of May, the token had rallied to over $474, resulting in a 68.6% gain — one of the best performing bullish signals in the dataset.

On June 4, the latest red dot (bearish) appeared. The model anticipates another downward move — time will tell if it materializes, but the track record suggests caution is warranted.

Ethereum

Finally, we analyze the AI’s predictive power for Ethereum, the second-largest crypto by market cap. Over the six-month window, Token Metrics AI made three major calls — and each one captured critical pivots in ETH’s price.

On November 7, 2024, a green dot (bullish) appeared when ETH was priced at $2,880. The price then surged to $4,030 in less than 40 days, marking a 40% gain. For ETH, such a move is substantial and was well-timed.

By December 24, the AI flipped bearish with ETH trading at $3,490. This signal was perhaps the most important, as it came ahead of a major downturn. ETH eventually bottomed out near $1,540 in April 2025, avoiding a 55.8% drawdown for those who acted on the signal.

In May 2025, the AI signaled another bullish trend with ETH around $1,850. Since then, the asset rallied to $2,800, creating a 51% gain.

These three trades — two bullish and one bearish — show the AI’s potential in navigating large-cap assets during both hype cycles and corrections.Backtesting Token Metrics AI across memecoins, AI narratives, and Ethereum shows consistent results: early identification of breakouts, timely exit signals, and minimized risk exposure. While no model is perfect, the six-month history reveals a tool capable of delivering real value — especially when used alongside sound risk management.

Whether you’re a trader looking to time the next big altcoin rally or an investor managing downside in turbulent markets, Token Metrics AI signals — available via the fastest crypto API — offer a powerful edge.

Backtesting Token Metrics AI across memecoins, AI narratives, and Ethereum shows consistent results: early identification of breakouts, timely exit signals, and minimized risk exposure. While no model is perfect, the six-month history reveals a tool capable of delivering real value — especially when used alongside sound risk management.

Whether you’re a trader looking to time the next big altcoin rally or an investor managing downside in turbulent markets, Token Metrics AI signals — available via the fastest crypto API — offer a powerful edge.

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About Token Metrics
Token Metrics: AI-powered crypto research and ratings platform. We help investors make smarter decisions with unbiased Token Metrics Ratings, on-chain analytics, and editor-curated “Top 10” guides. Our platform distills thousands of data points into clear scores, trends, and alerts you can act on.
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analysts, data scientists, and crypto engineers
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concise market insights and “Top Picks”
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Sponsored ≠ Ratings; research remains independent
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Token Metrics Team
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Recent Posts

Research

Fundamental Grade Crypto API: Real Crypto Fundamentals in One Score

Token Metrics Team
3

Most traders chase price action; Fundamental Grade Crypto API helps you see the business behind the token—community traction, tokenomics design, exchange presence, VC signals, and DeFi health—consolidated into one score you can query in code. In a few minutes, you’ll fetch Fundamental Grade, render it in your product, and ship a due-diligence UX that drives trust. Start by grabbing your key at the Get API Key page, Run Hello-TM to verify your first call, then Clone a Template to go live fast.

What You’ll Build in 2 Minutes

A minimal script to fetch Fundamental Grade from /v2/fundamental-grade for any symbol (e.g., BTC).

  • Optional curl to smoke-test your key in seconds.
  • A drop-in pattern to display the grade + key drivers in dashboards, screeners, and research tools.

Endpoints to consider next

  • /v2/tm-grade (technical/sentiment/momentum)
  • /v2/price-prediction (scenario planning)
  • /v2/resistance-support (risk levels)
  • /v2/quantmetrics (risk/return stats)

Why This Matters

Beyond price, toward quality. Markets are noisy—hype rises and fades. Fundamental Grade consolidates hard-to-track signals (community growth, token distribution, liquidity venues, investor quality, DeFi integrations) into a clear, comparable score. You get a fast “is this worth time and capital?” answer for screening, allocation, and monitoring.

Build trust into your product. Whether you run an investor terminal, exchange research tab, or a portfolio tool, Token Metrics discovery helps users justify positions. Pair it with TM Grade or Quantmetrics for a balanced picture: what to buy (fundamentals) and when to act (signals/levels).

Where to Find

The Fundamental Grade is easily accessible in the top right of the API Reference. Grab the cURL request for seamless access!

Ready to build?

  • Get API Key — generate a key and start free.
  • Run Hello-TM — verify your first successful call.
  • Clone a Template — deploy a screener or token page today.

Watch the demo: VIDEO_URL_HERE. Compare plans: Scale confidently with API plans.

FAQs

1) What does the Fundamental Grade API return?

A JSON payload with the overall score/grade plus component scores (e.g., community, tokenomics, exchange presence, VC backing, DeFi health) and timestamps. Use the overall grade for ranking and component scores for explanations.

2) How fast is the endpoint? Do you publish SLOs?

The API is engineered for predictable latency. For high-traffic dashboards, add short-TTL caching and batch requests; for alerts, use jobs/webhooks to minimize round-trips.

3) Can I combine Fundamental Grade with TM Grade or signals?

Yes. A common pattern is Fundamental Grade for quality filter + TM Grade for technical/sentiment context + Trading Signals for timing and Support/Resistance for risk placement.

4) How “accurate” is the grade?

It’s an opinionated synthesis of multiple inputs—not financial advice. Historical studies can inform usage, but past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always layer risk management and testing.

5) Do you offer SDKs and examples?

You can use REST directly (see JS/Python above). The docs include quickstarts, Postman, and ready-to-clone templates—start with Run Hello-TM.

6) Polling vs webhooks for fundamentals updates?

For UI pages, cached polling works well. For event-style notifications (upgrades/downgrades), prefer webhooks or scheduled jobs to avoid spiky traffic.

7) What about pricing, limits, and enterprise SLAs?

Begin free and scale as you grow. See API plans for allowances; enterprise SLAs and support are available—contact us.

Research

Fundamental Grade Crypto API: Invest with Conviction Using Real Project Signals

Token Metrics Team
4

Most traders chase price action; Fundamental Grade Crypto API helps you see the business behind the token—community traction, tokenomics design, exchange presence, VC signals, and DeFi health—consolidated into one score you can query in code. In a few minutes, you’ll fetch Fundamental Grade, render it in your product, and ship a due-diligence UX that drives trust. Start by grabbing your key at the Get API Key page, Run Hello-TM to verify your first call, then Clone a Template to go live fast.

What You’ll Build in 2 Minutes

A minimal script to fetch Fundamental Grade from /v2/fundamental-grade for any symbol (e.g., BTC).

  • Optional curl to smoke-test your key in seconds.
  • A drop-in pattern to display the grade + key drivers in dashboards, screeners, and research tools.

Endpoints to consider next:

  • /v2/tm-grade (technical/sentiment/momentum)
  • /v2/price-prediction (scenario planning)
  • /v2/resistance-support (risk levels)
  • /v2/quantmetrics (risk/return stats)

Why This Matters

Beyond price, toward quality. Markets are noisy—hype rises and fades. Fundamental Grade consolidates hard-to-track signals (community growth, token distribution, liquidity venues, investor quality, DeFi integrations) into a clear, comparable score. You get a fast “is this worth time and capital?” answer for screening, allocation, and monitoring.

Build trust into your product. Whether you run an investor terminal, exchange research tab, or a portfolio tool, Fundamental Grade lets users justify positions. Pair it with TM Grade or Quantmetrics for a balanced picture: what to buy (fundamentals) and when to act (signals/levels).

Where to Find The Fundamental Grade

The Fundamental Grade is easily accessible in the top right of the API Reference. Grab the cURL request for seamless access!

Build Smarter Crypto Apps & AI Agents with Token Metrics

Token Metrics provides real-time prices, trading signals, and on-chain insights all from one powerful API. Grab a Free API Key

How It Works (Under the Hood)

Fundamental Grade aggregates multiple project-quality signals into a normalized score and label (e.g., Strong / Average / Weak). Typical sub-signals include:

  • Community: momentum across channels (dev activity/user traction signals where applicable).
  • Tokenomics: supply schedule, distribution, unlock dynamics, incentives.
  • Exchange Presence: venue coverage, depth/liquidity proxies.
  • VC/Investor Signals: quality/durability of backing and ecosystem support.
  • DeFi Health: integrations, TVL context, composability footprint.

At query time, you call /v2/fundamental-grade with a symbol; responses include the overall score plus component scores you can visualize. For dashboards with many assets, batch fetches and short-TTL caching keep pages responsive. If you push alerts (e.g., “Fundamental Grade upgraded”), prefer webhooks or queued jobs to avoid hammering the API.

Production Checklist

  • Rate limits: Know plan caps; add client throttling and request queues.
  • Retries/backoff: Exponential backoff + jitter; surface actionable error messages.
  • Idempotency: Prevent duplicate downstream actions on retried calls.
  • Caching: Use memory/Redis/KV with short TTLs; pre-warm popular symbols.
  • Webhooks & jobs: For alerts, use signed webhooks or scheduled jobs; log delivery outcomes.
  • Pagination/Bulk: When covering many tokens, paginate or process in batches.
  • Error catalog: Map 4xx/5xx to user-visible fixes; log request IDs.
  • Observability: Track p95/p99 and error rate per endpoint; alert on spikes.
  • Security: Keep API keys in secrets managers; rotate regularly.

Use Cases & Patterns

  • Screener Maker: Rank tokens by Fundamental Grade, filter by market cap/sector, and add “rising fundamentals” badges for discovery.
  • Dashboard Builder: On each token page, show the headline grade with a component chart; link to methodology for transparency.
  • Research & PM Tools: Flag downgrades/upgrades to prompt re-evaluation; attach notes to component changes (e.g., DeFi health drop).
  • Allocator / Risk: Require a minimum Fundamental Grade before inclusion; rebalance only when grade crosses thresholds.
  • Community/Discord: Post weekly upgrades as digest messages with links back to your app.

Next Steps

  • Get API Key — generate a key and start free.
  • Run Hello-TM — verify your first successful call.
  • Clone a Template — deploy a screener or token page today.
  • Watch the demo: VIDEO_URL_HERE
  • Compare plans: Scale confidently with API plans.

FAQs

1) What does the Fundamental Grade API return?

A JSON payload with the overall score/grade plus component scores (e.g., community, tokenomics, exchange presence, VC backing, DeFi health) and timestamps. Use the overall grade for ranking and component scores for explanations.

2) How fast is the endpoint? Do you publish SLOs?

The API is engineered for predictable latency. For high-traffic dashboards, add short-TTL caching and batch requests; for alerts, use jobs/webhooks to minimize round-trips.

3) Can I combine Fundamental Grade with TM Grade or signals?

Yes. A common pattern is Fundamental Grade for quality filter + TM Grade for technical/sentiment context + Trading Signals for timing and Support/Resistance for risk placement.

4) How “accurate” is the grade?

It’s an opinionated synthesis of multiple inputs—not financial advice. Historical studies can inform usage, but past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Always layer risk management and testing.

5) Do you offer SDKs and examples?

You can use REST directly (see JS/Python above). The docs include quickstarts, Postman, and ready-to-clone templates—start with Run Hello-TM.

Research

Indices Hub: Join the Waitlist for TM Global 100 (2025)

Token Metrics Team
5

If you’ve been waiting for a simple, rules-based way to own the Token Metrics Global 100—without micromanaging tokens—this hub is for you. The TM Global 100 is a rules-based crypto index that holds the top 100 assets in bull markets and moves to stablecoins in bear markets, with weekly rebalancing and transparent holdings/transaction logs you can verify at any time. It’s designed for hands-off allocators who want disciplined exposure and for active traders who want a core that adapts to regimes—without guesswork or endless rebalancing. Below you’ll find how it works, who it’s for, and exactly how to join the waitlist so you’re first in line when trading opens.

Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.

Why Indices Matter in October 2025

Search intent right now: investors want credible, rules-based crypto exposure that can participate in upside while reducing drawdown pain. A crypto index is a basket of assets selected and maintained by rules—so you avoid one-off bets and constant manual rebalancing.

With liquidity rotating quickly across sectors, weekly rebalancing helps maintain alignment with current market-cap leaders, while regime switching provides a disciplined, pre-defined response to bearish conditions. The result is a clear, consistent process that removes emotional decision-making and operational drag.

Definition

A crypto index is a rules-based basket of digital assets that’s constructed, weighted, and rebalanced on a set schedule.

How the TM Global 100 Index Works (Plain English)

  • Regime switching: Bullish: Hold the top-100 crypto assets by market cap.
  • Bearish: Exit all positions into stablecoins and wait for a new bullish signal.
  • Weekly rebalancing: Reflects updated rankings and weights across the market-cap universe.
  • Transparency: Strategy modal shows methodology and thresholds; Gauge → Holdings Treemap → Transactions Log make every change visible.

What you’ll see on launch: Price tile, gauge (“rebalances weekly”), 100 tokens, one-click Buy Index flow, and a 90-second checkout via embedded wallet.‍See the strategy and rules.

Benefits at a Glance (Why This Beats DIY)

  • Time saved: No more manual coin-picking, sizing, and calendar rebalances.
  • Lower execution drag: One click vs. dozens of individual orders that can add slippage.
  • Stay current: Weekly rebalances help you capture market-cap changes without constant monitoring.
  • Discipline in drawdowns: Automatic switch to stablecoins removes panic decisions.
  • Radical visibility: Holdings treemap, table, and transactions log show what you own and what changed—every week.
  • Operational simplicity: Embedded wallet and a unified dashboard; no juggling chains and exchanges.

Step-by-Step: How to Get Early Access (Waitlist)

  1. Open the Indices Hub: Head to the Token Metrics Indices hub.
  2. Choose TM Global 100: Open the index page and review the Gauge → Strategy → Holdings.
  3. Join the Waitlist: Add your email to be notified the moment trading opens.
  4. (Optional) Connect Wallet: Pre-connect your wallet for a faster launch-day checkout.

Launch-Day Flow (~90 seconds): Tap Buy Index, review fees/slippage, confirm, and see your position in My Indices. Track Rebalances: After each weekly rebalance or regime change, check the Transactions Log for updates.

Join the waitlist to be first to trade TM Global 100.

Decision Guide: Is This Right for You?

  • Hands-Off Allocator: Want broad exposure without micromanaging? Yes—rules-based + weekly rebalances.
  • Active Trader: Need a core that sits in stables during bears while you hunt edges elsewhere? Fits.
  • TM Member/Prospect: Already trust Token Metrics research? This is the rules-based version of “own the market.”
  • Risk-Aware Newcomer: Prefer a clear framework over vibes? Methodology is visible and auditable.
  • DIY Basket Builder: Tired of missed rebalances and slippage? One click can reduce execution drag.
  • Data-First Analyst: Want to verify? See the holdings, weights, and transaction history anytime.

FAQs

1) What is a TM Global 100 index?

It’s a rules-based crypto index that holds the top 100 assets by market cap in bullish regimes and moves to stablecoins in bearish regimes. It rebalances weekly and shows transparent holdings and transactions.

2) How often does the index rebalance?

Weekly, with additional full-portfolio switches when the market regime changes.

3) What triggers the move to stablecoins?

A proprietary market signal. When bearish, the index exits all token positions into stablecoins and waits for a bullish re-entry signal.

4) Can I fund with USDC or fiat?

At launch, funding and settlement options surface based on the embedded wallet and supported chains. USDC payouts are supported for selling; additional entry options may be introduced later.

5) Is the wallet custodial?

No. The Embedded Wallet is self-custodial—you control your funds while using a streamlined, on-chain checkout.

6) How are fees shown?

Before you confirm, the Buy flow shows estimated gas, platform fee, maximum slippage, and the minimum expected value.

7) How do I join the waitlist?

Go to the Token Metrics Indices hub or the TM Global 100 strategy page and submit your email. We’ll notify you the moment trading opens.

Security, Risk & Transparency

  • Self-custody: Embedded smart wallet; you hold the keys.
  • 2FA & session hygiene: Use strong auth practices for your TM account.
  • Fee clarity: Gas, platform fee, and slippage are displayed before you confirm.
  • Auditability: Holdings, treemap, and transactions log are always visible.
  • Model limits: Regime logic can be wrong, and markets can gap; rules reduce discretion—not risk.
  • Regional availability: Product surfaces may vary by region as we expand.

Crypto is volatile and can lose value. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This article is for research/education, not financial advice.

Conclusion

If you want a disciplined, rules-based core that adapts to market regimes, Token Metrics Global 100 is built for you. Weekly rebalances, transparent holdings, and one-click buy remove operational friction so you can focus on your strategy.

Click here to get early access to Token Metrics indices.

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